Standard merger simulations focus solely on price changes while constraining the set of product characteristics to be identical preand post-merger. Recent papers have begun to address this issue (see, e.g. Fan, August 2013 AER). To overcome the limitations of traditional simulations, I endogenize both prices and product characteristics by specifying a two-stage oligopoly game. After estimating ...

We investigate the effect of hurricane strikes on housing prices in US coastal cities. To this end, we construct a new index of hurricane destruction which varies over time and space. Using this index and an annual, two equation, dynamic equilibrium correction panel model with area and time fixed effects, we model the effects of hurricanes on real house prices and real incomes. In our model hur...

We propose an Economic Stability Index (ESI) incorporating house prices and stock prices as components of the measure of the inflation rate in order to allow the European Central Bank (ECB) to achieve both price and macroeconomic stability. We use an optimisation approach to estimate target weights for different sectoral prices in the broader price index, which depend on sectoral parameters oth...

We study the cross-sectional performance of option pricing models in which the volatility of the underlying stock is a deterministic function of the stock price and time. For each date in our sample of FTSE 100 index option prices, we fit an implied binomial tree to the panel of all European style options with different strike prices and maturities and then examine how well this model prices a ...

I discuss the short-run dynamics of commodity prices, production, and inventories, as well as the sources and effects of market volatility. I explain how prices, rates of production, and inventory levels are interrelated, and are determined via equilibrium in two interconnected markets: a cash market for spot purchases and sales of the commodity, and a market for storage. I show how equilibrium...

A currency area can be a self-validating optimal policy regime, even when monetary unification does not foster real economic integration and intra-industry trade. In our model firms choose the degree of exchange rate pass-through onto export prices accounting for expected monetary policies, and monetary authorities choose optimal policy rules taking firms’ pass-through as given. We show that th...

A large variety of markets, such as retail markets for gasoline or mortgage markets, are characterized by a small number of firms offering a fairly homogenous product at virtually the same cost, while consumers, being uninformed about this cost, sequentially search for low prices. The present paper provides a theoretical examination of this type of market, and confronts the theory with data on ...

the natural gas consumption in iran has been continuously increasing due to several reasons including low prices of natural gas, development of gas supply networks, people’s salary increase, incorrect consumption culture and the increase of national economy growth.  although, the global natural gas consumption has increased by 38% since 2001, the national consumption in iran has increased by 11...

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodo...