Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slowdown comes entirely from female employment, as women’s employment rates converged toward men’s during the past half-century. But does growth of translate into a for overall rates? We estimate extent to which women “crowd out” men labor market across US states, and find that it is small. Through lens general equilibrium model with...

Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we estimate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through vertical production linkages. First, exploiting high-frequency and TTB procedural details, identify policy shocks exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables construct measures affecting downstream producers. Finally, panel local projections using id...

i n the past decades, the effect of different tax amendments on various economic issues has been studied. the majority of these studies have avoided considering shadow economy as part of the calculation and analysis, and an issue, which has received little attention, is the relationship between green tax reforms and shadow economy, as for informal labor, which is well-connected to unemployment ...

We provide new evidence on business cycle fluctuations in skewed labor income risk the United States, Germany, Sweden, and France. document four results. First, all countries, skewness of individual growth is strongly procyclical, whereas its variance flat acyclical. Second, this result also holds for continuously employed, full-time workers, indicating that hours margin not main driver; additi...

Since 1982, all Alaskan residents have received a yearly cash dividend from the Alaska Permanent Fund. Using Current Population Survey and synthetic control method, this paper shows that had no effect on employment increased part-time work by 1.8 percentage points (17 percent). A calibration of microeconomic macroeconomic effects suggests empirical results are consistent with stimulating local ...

Increases in the minimum wage can substantially reduce earnings inequality. To demonstrate this, we combine administrative and survey data with an equilibrium model of Brazilian labor market. We find that a 128 percent increase real Brazil between 1996 2018 had far-reaching spillover effects on wages higher up distribution. The increased accounts for 45 large fall inequality over this period. A...

Motivated by the effects of COVID-19 pandemic, we present a theory Keynesian supply shocks: shocks that reduce potential output in sector economy, but that, reducing demand other sectors, ultimately push aggregate activity below potential. A shock is more likely when elasticity substitution between sectors relatively low, intertemporal high, and markets are incomplete. Fiscal policy can display...

We document that government spending multipliers depend on the population age structure. Using variation in military and birth rates across US states, we show local fiscal multiplier is 1.5 increases with share of young people, implying 1.1–1.9 interquartile range. A parsimonious life cycle open economy New Keynesian model credit market imperfections age-specific differences labor supply demand...

Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword searches and unemployment rates using monthly German data...