Is credit expansion a sign of desirable financial deepening or the prelude to an inevitable bust? We study this question in modern US data using structural VAR model 10 monthly frequency variables, identified by heteroskedasticity. Negative reduced-form responses output growth are caused endogenous monetary policy response shocks. On average, and remain positively associated. “Financial stress”...

This paper assesses the presence and importance of neo-Fisher effect in postwar data. It formulates estimates an empirical a New Keynesian model driven by stationary nonstationary monetary real shocks. In accordance with conventional wisdom, temporary increases nominal interest rate are estimated to cause decreases inflation output. The main finding is that permanent shocks increase long run ra...

We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics expectations for the United States other countries over postwar period. In our theory, long-run are endogenous. They driven by short-run surprises, way that depends on recent forecasting performance monetary policy. This distinguishes from common explanations properties inflation. Th...

We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model with rich cross-sectional heterogeneity. Optimal differs from a representative benchmark because can affect consumption inequality, by stabilizing risk arising both idiosyncratic shocks and unequal exposures to aggregate shocks. The trade-off between productive efficiency, price stability is su...

We build a model in which the Fed and market disagree about future aggregate demand. The anticipates monetary policy “mistakes,” affect current demand induce to partially accommodate market’s view. expects implement its view gradually. Announcements that reveal an unexpected change Fed’s belief provide microfoundation for shocks. Tantrum shocks arise when misinterprets overreacts announcement. ...

We develop a multisector sticky-price DSGE model that can endogenously deliver differential responses of prices to aggregate and sectoral shocks. Input-output production linkages (standard) monetary policy rule contribute slow response In turn, labor market segmentation at the level induces within-sector strategic substitutability in price-setting decisions, which helps fast sector-specific est...

We study optimal time-consistent monetary and fiscal policy in a New Keynesian model where occasional declines agents’ confidence give rise to persistent liquidity trap episodes. Insights from widely studied fundamental-driven traps are not useful guide for enhancing welfare this model. Raising the inflation target, appointing an inflation-conservative central banker, or allowing use of governm...

The conventional policy perspective is that lowering the interest rate increases output and inflation in the short run, while maintaining inflation at a higher level requires a higher interest rate in the long run. In contrast it has been argued that a Neo-Fisherian policy of setting an interest-rate peg at a fixed higher level will increase the inflation rate. We show that adaptive learning ar...

Inflation targeting needs to be supplemented by an economic growth target so that central banks will not adopt monetary policy which results in stagnation. There is no guarantee that the economy will move towards full employment by itself when the inflation rate is kept between two to three per cent. Monetary policy does not have a comparative advantage in achieving price stability. Svensson's ...