Abstract The spatio-temporal epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. While traditional inference methods provide only point estimates parameters, we aim at a fully Bayesian treatment inference, allowing naturally incorporate prior knowledge and uncertainty quantification resulting estimates. Therefore, introdu...

Abstract In statistical seismology, the Epidemic Type Aftershocks Sequence (ETAS) model is a branching process used world-wide to forecast earthquake intensity rates and reproduce many features observed in seismicity catalogs. this paper, we describe fractional differential equation that governs rate of pure temporal ETAS by using Caputo derivative solve it analytically. We highlight tools spec...

1. Related work. A general linear self-exciting process is identified by the conditional intensity function λ(t) = µ + k 0 t k <t g(t − t k) where µ is the baseline hazard rate. The Hawkes Process (Hawkes, 1971a,b) is a particularly tractable self-exciting point process with an exponential kernel, developed for earthquake modeling. Historically, a lot of effort has gone into modeling earthquake...

The complete mitochondrial control region was sequenced for 60 individuals representing different populations for each of the four species of the subterranean mole rat Spalax ehrenbergi superspecies in Israel: Spalax galili (2n = 52), S. golani (2n = 54), S. carmeli (2n = 58), and S. judaei (2n = 60). The control region of all species and populations is very similar both in length (979 to 983 b...

Nowadays decision makers are, exceptionally, facing complex problems that generally oblige collaboration between individuals with different expertise from different areas. The use of virtual teams is an effective tool to solve these problems, but this is still a relatively new field for academic research. Also, information technology offers an infrastructure for communication and teamwork tools...

A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws, including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on these laws. Yet, a recent study [1] showed that ETAS model fails to reproduce significant long-term characteristics found real catalogs. Here we modify generalize in...

[1] We use recent results on statistical analysis of seismicity to present a robust method for comprehensive detection and analysis of earthquake clusters. The method is based on nearest-neighbor distances of events in space-time-energy domain. The method is applied to a 1981–2011 relocated seismicity catalog of southern California having 111,981 events with magnitudes m ≥ 2 and corresponding s...