A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior with consistent dating of their origi-nation and collapse. The tests serve as an early warning diagnostic of bubble a...

The crisis originated in the bursting of a house price bubble driven by an excessive credit expansion in the US, which eventually pushed the global financial system to the brink of collapse. In some countries, such as Spain or Ireland, the crisis was further compounded by the bursting of their own housing bubbles. In this regard, the current crisis is an excellent example. Historical evidence s...

We propose a continuous-time model of trading with heterogeneous beliefs. Risk-neutral agents face quadratic costs-of-carry on positions and thus their marginal valuation of the asset decreases with the size of their position, as it would be the case for risk-averse agents. In the equilibrium models of heterogeneous beliefs that followed the work by Harrison and Kreps, investors are risk-neutra...

Rational price bubble arises when the price of an asset exceeds the asset’s fundamental value, that is, the present value of future dividend payments. The important result of Santos and Woodford (1997) says that price bubbles cannot exist in equilibrium in the standard dynamic asset pricing model with rational agents facing borrowing constraints as long as assets are in strictly positive supply...

Employing the fundamental value of real estate determined by the economic fundamentals, a measurement model for real estate bubble size is established based on the panel data analysis. Using this model, real estate bubble sizes in various regions in Japan in the late 1980s and in recent China are examined. Two panel models for Japan provide results, which are consistent with the reality in the ...

Identifying unambiguously the presence of a bubble in an asset price remains an unsolved problem in standard econometric and financial economic approaches. A large part of the problem is that the fundamental value of an asset is, in general, not directly observable and it is poorly constrained to calculate. Further, it is not possible to distinguish between an exponentially growing fundamental ...

We have learned from other contributions to this conference that it can be diffi cult to pin down whether a particular rise in asset prices constitutes a bubble, especially at the time it is happening. It may be easier ex post – the defi nition that says that you know youʼve had an asset bubble when the price has just fallen by 40 per cent. Despite these uncertainties, I think it makes sense to...