The model of a non-Bayesian agent who faces a repeated game with incomplete information against Nature is an appropriate tool for modeling general agent-environment interactions. In such a model the environment state (controlled by Nature) may change arbitrarily, and the feedback/reward function is initially unknown. The agent is not Bayesian, that is he does not form a prior probability neithe...

A major competitive advantage of production and service systems is establishing a proper maintenance policy. Therefore, maintenance managers should make maintenance decisions that best fit their systems. Multi-criterion decision-making methods can take into account a number of aspects associated with the competitiveness factors of a system. This paper presents a multi-criterio...

This paper describes a tool for anticipating cultural behavior called, “CulBN.” The tool uses Bayesian belief networks to represent distributions of causal knowledge spread across members of cultural groups. CulBN simulations allow one to anticipate how changes in beliefs affect decisions and actions at the cultural level of analysis. An example case from a study of Afghan decision making is us...

Statistical decision theory can be a valuable tool for policy-making decisions. In particular, environmental problems often benefit from the application of Bayesian and decision-theoretic techniques that address the uncertain nature of problems in the environmental and ecological sciences. This paper discusses aspects of implementing statistical decision-making tools in situations where uncerta...