one of the current challenges and complications in the world is the climate change and global warming, which has numerous and varied effects and consequences in different regions. in this regard, the effects of economic activities on the increase in greenhouse gases and also the effects of greenhouse gases on economic activities have become increasingly controversial. in this study, an investig...

We study cross-country differences in monetary policy transmission across the largest euro area economies (France, Germany, Italy, and Spain) using a large Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model with endogenous prior selection. Drawing on posterior distributions of impulse responses other tests, we find real output money supply to respond more strongly Germany than countries. Whereas, pric...

there are different ideas and opinions about the effects of macroeconomic variables on real and nominal variables. to answer the question of whether changes in macroeconomic variables as a political tool is useful over a business cycle, understanding the effect of macroeconomic variables on economic growth is important. in the present study, the bayesian vector autoregresive model and seasonali...

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore’s (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the DuaMiller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two tasks. First, it describes the process of revising the Connecticut Coincident and Leading Employment Index...

Abstract In this study, a novel auto-tuned hybrid deep learning approach composed of three base models, namely, long short-term memory, gated recurrent unit, and support vector regression, is developed to predict the fracture evolution process. The novelty framework lies in auto-determined hyperparameter configurations for each model based on Bayesian optimization technique, which guarantees fa...

We consider batch size selection for a general class of multivariate means variance estimators, which are computationally viable high-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. derive the asymptotic mean squared error this estimators. Further, we propose parametric technique estimating optimal sizes and discuss practical issues regarding process. Vector auto-regressive, Bayesian logistic...

Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, and Big Data analytics share some challenges, sometimes called the three “Vs”. Indeed, nowcasting is characterized by use of a large number time series (Volume), complexity data covering various sectors economy, with different frequencies precision asynchronous release dates (Variety), need to incorporate new information continuously t...

The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank, with particular emphasis on recent research and the new challenges facing the Bank following the launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Broadly speaking the approach adopted by the Bank over a number of years has been an eclectic one which combines judgement and a range of formal a...