This paper generalizes the discussion about disagreement versus uncertainty in macroeconomic survey data by emphasizing the importance of the (unknown) true predictive density. Using a forecast combination approach, we ask whether crosssections of survey point forecasts help to approximate the true predictive density. We find that although these cross-sections perform poorly individually, their...

This paper studies the information content of some Ifo indicators. In particular, we investigate whether two Ifo indicators, one on the current business situation, the other on current production development, provide information on revisions of German industrial production. A new feature of our analysis is the construction and use of a real-time dataset. We conclude that the Ifo indicators play...

We consider evaluating the UK Monetary Policy Committee’s inflation density forecasts using probability integral transform goodness-of-fit tests and measures related to a decision/cost based approach. In implementing the decision-based approach a number of difficulties arise in the absence of full information on payoffs, and when the actual and forecast inflation probabilities may depend on the...

This paper derives analytical results for determination of the window size that explores the trade-off between bias and forecast error variance to minimize the mean squared forecast error in the presence of breaks. We show analytically how to determine the estimation window optimally for the case with strictly exogenous regressors. Through Monte Carlo simulations the paper compares the performa...

We expand Nakamura’s (2005) neural network based inflation forecasting experiment to an alternative non-linear model; a Markov switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. The two non-linear models perform approximately on par and outperform the linear autoregressive model on short forecast horizons of one and two quarters. Furthermore, the MS-AR model is the best performer on longer horizons of thr...

This article proposes a functional dynamic factor model for the evaluation of the impact of scalar– and curve–valued factors on the shapes of intraday price curves. The asymptotic theory leads to practically useful confidence intervals for the factor coefficients. The main findings pertain to the impact of the shapes of intraday oil futures on the shapes of intraday prices of blue chip stocks. ...

GroES is an indispensable chaperonin virtually found throughout all life forms. Consequently, mutations of this protein must be critically scrutinized by natural selection. Nevertheless, the homolog from a potentially virulent gastric pathogen, Helicobacter pylori, strikingly features a histidine/cysteine-rich C terminus that shares no significant homology with other family members. Additionall...

We document that the expectations of households, firms, and professional forecasters in standard surveys simultaneously extrapolate from recent events underreact to new information. Existing models expectation formation, whether behavioral or rational, cannot account for these observations. develop a rational theory extrapolation based on limited attention, which is consistent with this evidenc...

Unlike Saccharomyces cerevisiae RNA polymerase III, human RNA polymerase III has not been entirely characterized. Orthologues of the yeast RNA polymerase III subunits C128 and C37 remain unidentified, and for many of the other subunits, the available information is limited to database sequences with various degrees of similarity to the yeast subunits. We have purified an RNA polymerase III comp...