This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. In this paper, the IMF’s new Global Economy Model (GEM) is us...

The point of this paper is that if output is durable then optimal behavior of a supplier is characterized by production smoothing. Durability of goods (such as capital) has opposite effects on the supply of the goods. Higher durability on the one hand raises the variability of investment demand for the goods by lowering the user’s cost, which tends to raise the variability of supply; on the oth...

Does International Outsourcing Really Lower Workers’ Income? We analyze the impact of international outsourcing on income, if the domestic labor market is imperfect. We distinguish in our analysis between the case where the parties negotiate over the wage only and where they negotiate over both wage and profit share. We find that in the first case outsourcing will reduce (increase) workers’ inc...

This paper reviews and documents methodology for fitting hidden Markov switching models to New Zealand GDP data. A primary objective is to better understand the utility of these methods for modelling growth and volatility regimes present in the New Zealand data and their interaction. Properties of the models are developed together with a description of the estimation methods, including use of t...

We explore the asset pricing implications of an investment-based model that features a stochastic technology frontier and costly technology adoption. Firms adopt the latest technology embodied in new capital to reach a stochastic technology frontier, but this decision entails an adoption cost. The model predicts that old capital firms are more risky and hence offer a higher returns than young c...

We quantify the role of population aging in structural transformation process. Household-level data from United States show that fraction expenditures devoted to services increases with household age. use a shift-share decomposition and quantitative model US accounted for about fifth observed increase service share consumption between 1982 2016. The contribution rise is same size as real income...

This paper assesses the presence and importance of neo-Fisher effect in postwar data. It formulates estimates an empirical a New Keynesian model driven by stationary nonstationary monetary real shocks. In accordance with conventional wisdom, temporary increases nominal interest rate are estimated to cause decreases inflation output. The main finding is that permanent shocks increase long run ra...

The Journal of Economic Literature codes classification system (JEL) published by the American Association (AEA) is de facto standard for research literature in economics. JEL used to classify articles, dissertations, books, book reviews, and working papers EconLit, a database maintained AEA. Over time, it has evolved extended with over 850 subclasses. This paper reviews history development sys...

JEL Classification: F16, F43 This study examines the impacts of CO2 emissions on economic growth of Vietnam for the period 1986-2015 by using Autogressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results reveal that there is cointegration relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth. In the long run carbon dioxide emissions have a significant negative impact on Vietnam economic growth. There...

Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population across states estimate impact on growth GDP per capita for 1980–2010. find that each 10 percent increase fraction age 60+ decreased by 5.5 percent. One-third reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds due labor productivity Labor compensation and wages also decli...