The nominal orbit solution for an asteroid/comet resulting from a least squares t to astrometric observations is surrounded by a region containing solutions equally compatible with the data, the con dence region. If the observed arc is not too short, and for an epoch close to the observations, the con dence region in the 6-dimensional space of orbital elements is well approximated by an ellipso...

Constrained Maximum Likelihood (CML) is a new software module developed at Aptech Systems for the generation of maximum likelihood estimates of statistical models with general constraints on parameters. These constraints can be linear or nonlinear, equality or inequality. The software uses the Sequential Quadratic Programming method with various descent algorithms to iterate from a given starti...

We generated datasets using, for each dataset, a xed template (`, e) for each box. The value of ` varied from 9 to 15 in di erent experiments, with e ∈ {1..b1/3`c}, and with the number of boxes ranging from 2 to 10. For each choice of the parameters we performed 20 runs for each tool, computing the average running time and the corresponding 95% con dence interval. As a general conclusion we may...

Nonparametric methods are becoming popular recently in estimating continuous-time di¤usion models due to their ‡exibility. This paper provides a new approach to constructing point-wise con…dence intervals for nonparametric drift and di¤usion functions via empirical likelihood (EL) in conjunction with local linear smoothing. It serves as a promising competitor to the conventional asymptotic norm...

An acoustic con dence measure for acceptance/rejection of recognition hypotheses for continuous speech utterances is proposed. This measure is useful for rejecting utterances that are out of domain, or contain out-of-vocabulary words or speech dis uencies. A phone-based approach is implemented so that a single global threshold can be applied to hypothesis rejection for any word sequence. Phone ...

Con dence intervals for the survival function and the cumulative hazard function are considered. These con dence intervals are based on an inversion of the likelihood ratio statistic. To do this two extensions of the likelihood, each of which yields meaningful likelihood ratio hypothesis tests and subsequent con dence intervals, are considered. The choice of the best extension is di cult. In th...

Multimodal fusion for identity veri cation has already shown great improvement compared to unimodal algorithms. In this paper, we propose to integrate con dence measures during the fusion process. We present a comparison of three di erent methods to generate such con dence information from unimodal identity veri cation systems. These methods can be used either to enhance the performance of a mu...

The nominal orbit solution for an asteroid/comet resulting from a least squares t to astrometric observations is surrounded by a region containing solutions equally compatible with the data, the con dence region. If the observed arc is not too short, and for an epoch close to the observations, the con dence region in the 6-dimensional space of orbital elements is well approximated by an ellipso...

This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to de ne and evaluate con dence measures for word recognition. We describe a novel method to combine di erent knowledge sources and estimate the con dence in a word hypothesis, via a neural network. We also propose a measure of the joint performance of the recognition and con dence systems. The de nitions and algorithms are illustrated with results ...

Previous research indicates that economic agents believe that they perform better than others in a variety of environments. This paper investigates whether or not a similar phenomenon exists for social groups. Students from ten di¤erent student organizations were recruited to participate in an experiment. Subjects revealed their beliefs about their own performance and their group’s performance ...