Using term structure data of Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads for the four Japanese mega-banks and the government, we jointly estimate the default intensity and expected recovery (loss) given a default. In doing so, we attempt to further identify the difference in the expected recovery ratios between senior and subordinated CDS contracts. Estimation results are summarized as follows. (i) The d...

Structural models of default risk price firm’s equity and debt as contingent claims written on the firm’s underlying assets. However, the empirical literature has detected that observed credit spreads, particularly for safer firms, tend to be on average above their structural models’ predictions (the credit spread puzzle). This paper investigates possible explanations for the credit spread puzz...

This paper implements a reduced form credit default swap (CDS) pricing model. Theoretical prices found are compared with market prices to evaluate the goodness of fit. Theoretical prices and pricing errors are inspected by rating classes, sectors of economic activity and currency denomination of CDS. Pricing errors are analyzed through panel data estimation techniques, to find determinants of p...

This paper examines the capability of firm fundamentals in explaining the cross-sectional variation of credit default swap spreads. We start with the Merton (1974) model, which combines two major credit risk determinants into a distance-to-default measure. We convert the distance-to-default measure into a raw CDS valuation based on a constant hazard rate assumption and then map the raw CDS valu...

In this work we develop a tractable structural model with analytical default probabilities depending on a random default barrier and possibly random volatility ideally associated with a scenario based underlying firm debt. We show how to calibrate this model using a chosen number of reference Credit Default Swap (CDS) market quotes. In general this model can be seen as a possible extension of t...

We study the determination of liquidity provision in the single-name credit default swap (CDS) market as measured by the number of distinct dealers providing quotes. We find that liquidity is concentrated among large obligors and those near the investment-grade/speculative-grade cutoff. Consistent with endogenous liquidity provision by informed financial institutions, more liquidity is associat...

We examine the effect of oil price uncertainty on sovereign credit risks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Unlike past studies, we employ a structural vector autoregression with multivariate GARCH-in-mean (VAR-GARCH-in-mean) approach after filtering out outliers observed series. The findings show that market has positive impact Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads GCC Furthermore, find ...

We compare the performance of various hedging strategies for index collateralized debt obligation (CDO) tranches across a variety of models and hedging methods during the recent credit crisis. Our empirical analysis shows evidence for market incompleteness: a large proportion of risk in the CDO tranches appears to be unhedgeable. We also show that, unlike what is commonly assumed, dynamic model...

With the recent significant growth in the single-name credit default swap market has come the need for accurate and computationally efficient models to value these instruments. While the model developed by Duffie-Pan-Singleton (2000) model can be used, the solution is numerical (solving a series of ordinary differential equations) rather than explicit. In this paper, we provide an explicit solu...

Hong Kong Rachel Hardee +852 2263 9918 rachel.hardee @derivativefitch.com Introduction Constant proportion debt obligations (CPDOs) are one of the latest product innovations seen in the structured credit markets. Like other more recent structured credit products, the performance of the issued debt obligations is highly dependent on the mark-to-market (MtM) impact of changes in credit spreads. C...