The economic literature emphasised the role of strategic complementarities in generating banking crises and currency crises. Motivated by evidence from recent financial crises, we study a model, where strategic complementarities exist, not only within a group of creditors or within a group of currency speculators, but also between the two groups. The additional type of complementarities generat...

Introduction That the present economic and political problems in Indonesia are well worth studying goes without saying. An ever-increasing number of edited volumes, books, and articles in newspapers and learned journals, bears testimony to this. It may appear less self-evident that valuable insights can also be gained from the study of economic crises in Indonesia’s past, but I would like to ar...

We study the behavior of credit spreads and their link to economic growth during financial crises. Our main finding is that the recessions that surround financial crises are longer and deeper than the recessions surrounding non-financial crises. The slow recovery from the 2008 crisis is in keeping with historical experience of recoveries from financial crises. We reach this conclusion by examin...

With the financial crises ongoing in Greece and Venezuela, sovereign debt crises have become more and more prominent in the public eye. Thus, it has become important to be able to predict when nations will enter such debt crises. We collected publicly available data in order to train models to predict, given a nation’s economic status in one year, whether they would be in a debt crisis the next...

This paper proposes that the global financial and economic crisis has a single cause underlying all other causes. The single cause is attributed to the economic paradigm which drives individual behaviour, business, government and education. We define the economic paradigm and explain its power to drive endogenous economic processes, ultimately leading to the course of events which is recognised...