A two-region model is proposed in this paper. Manufactured goods can be produced with cottage technology under constant returns to scale or with modern technology using differentiated intermediate goods, which are produced with increasing returns to scale technology. In the model, there may be multiple equilibria, and, in such cases, the initial conditions determine the equilibrium that the eco...

In this paper we specialize the Ngai-Pissarides model of growth and structural change [American Economic Review 97 (2007), 429-443] to the case of three sectors, representing the primary (agriculture, mining), secondary (construction, manufacturing) and tertiary (services) sectors. On that basis we explore the dynamic properties of the model along the transition path to the steady-state equilib...

This paper presents a simple model of the world economy, in which productivity gains in manufacturing are responsible for the global trend of manufacturing decline, and yet, in cross-section of countries, faster productivity gains in manufacturing do not necessarily imply faster declines in manufacturing. In doing so, it aims to draw attention to the common pitfall of using the cross-country ev...

This essay analyzes the long-term lessons of the recent upturn and downturn in the telecommunications industry. It concludes that volatility and cyclicality will be an inherent part of the telecom sector in the future. To deal with such instabilities, companies and investors seek consolidation and cooperation. Government, too, is likely to stress stability more than before. Hence, an oligopoly ...

This paper argues that barriers affect both the beginning date and the subsequent pace of modern growth, and taking into account this fact enriches our knowledge of cross-country income differences. The model matches the observed inverted U-shape of cross-country income differences, which implies that a substantial fraction of current income differences is transitional. Hence, the model require...

Do transitory economic shocks affect neonatal outcomes? I show that an unexpected, monthlong blackout in Tanzania caused a sharp but temporary drop in work hours for workers in electricity-dependent jobs. Using records from a maternity ward, I document a reduction in birth weights for children exposed in utero to the blackout, and an increase in the probability of low birth weight. The reductio...

Three dimensions of the performance of firms in Ghana’s manufacturing sector are investigated in this paper: their technology and the importance of technical and allocative efficiency. We show that the diversity of factor choices is not due to a non-homothetic technology. Observable skills are not quantitatively important as determinants of productivity. Technical inefficiency is not lower in f...

This paper proposes a possible framework for identifying excessive investment. Based on this method, it finds evidence that some types of investment are becoming excessive in China, particularly in inland provinces. In these regions, private consumption has on average become more dependent on investment (rather than vice versa) and the impact is relatively short-lived, necessitating ever higher...