To resolve the conflict between our desire for a good smoothing effect and desire to give additional weight to the recent change, a grey accumulating generation operator that can smooth the random interference of data is introduced into the double exponential smoothing method. The results of practical numerical examples have demonstrated that the proposed grey double exponential smoothing metho...

It is a common practice to complement a forecasting method such as simple exponential smoothing with a monitoring scheme to detect those situations where forecasts have failed to adapt to structural change. It will be suggested in this paper that the equations for simple exponential smoothing can be augmented by a common monitoring statistic to provide a method that automatically adapts to stru...

Efficient supply chain management relies on accurate demand forecasting. Typically, forecasts are required at frequent intervals for many items. Forecasting methods suitable for this application are those that can be relied upon to produce robust and accurate predictions when implemented within an automated procedure. Exponential smoothing methods are a common choice. In this empirical case stu...

An approach to exponential smoothing that relies on a linear single source of error state space model is outlined. A maximum likelihood method for the estimation of associated smoothing parameters is developed. Commonly used restrictions on the smoothing parameters are rationalised. Issues surrounding model identi…cation and selection are also considered. It is argued that the proposed revised ...