The authors argue that the word “critical” in the title is not purely literary. Based on their and other previous work on nonlinear complex dynamical systems, they summarize present evidence, on the Oct. 1929, Oct. 1987, Oct. 1987 Hong-Kong, Aug. 1998 global market events and on the 1985 Forex event, for the hypothesis advanced three years ago that stock market crashes are caused by the slow bu...

The paper addresses the problem of using Japanese candlestick methodology to analyze stock or forex market data by neural nets. Self organizing maps are presented as tools for providing maps of known candlestick formations. They may be used to visualize these patterns, and as inputs for more complex trading decision systems. In that case their role is preprocessing, coding and pre-classificatio...

with considering a ‘triangle of three major currency pairs’, there is a tiny difference between multiplication of exchange rate for the first two currency pairs and the third. to discover whether this little difference can lead to a neutral arbitrage or not, i took portfolios of 35 baskets of three major currency pairs(combinations of all 7 major currencies). there are eight approaches (differe...

In searching a market-neutral arbitrage strategy in forex market, we took a portfolio of three major currency pairs, EUR-USD, USD-JPY, and EUR-JPY. There are eight approaches, different cases of short and long positions; for example buying 1st and selling two others, etc. Historical daily FX rates were gathered since January 1990 until February 2011. Monthly covariances between daily growth rat...

the successful key of trading in the forex market is the selection of correct exchange in proper time based on an exact prediction of future exchange rate. foreign exchange rates are affected by many correlated economic, political and even psychological factors. therefore, in order to achieve a profitable trade these factors should be considered. the application of intelligent techniques for fo...

Papua New Guinea (PNG) has faced a foreign exchange (forex) shortage since 2015. The Bank of PNG resorted to forex rationing protect reserves, leading large backlog orders and import compression. This paper surveys the structure PNGʼs market analyses recent conditions. We argue that real rate depreciation is required restore currency convertibility. develop model features unmet which suggests f...