This paper is interested in linking formally external disequilibriums to the sovereign debt crisis the EMU is experiencing since 2009. Relying on the CHEER approach that connects the goods market to the capital market, we show that when a country belonging to a monetary union faces external disequilibrium relative to its main partner, the corresponding interest rate differential increases. More...

We examine the roles of idiosyncratic and systemic funding liquidity risks in bank failures. We estimate a discrete-time hazard model of bank failure using data of U.S. commercial banks between 1985 and 2004, and examine its out-of-sample forecasting performance between 2005 and 2011. The out-of-sample performance comparison shows this model outperforms typical bank failure prediction models. W...

This paper aims at testing the influence of Subprime Crisis on Chinese stock market returns. By means of newly proposed time series spatial analysis methodology, we investigate the dominance behavior of daily returns on both Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index between before and after the crisis. Little spatial dominance could be found, even consi...

This paper explores long wave theory, including Kondratieff’s theory of cycles in production and relative prices; Kuznets’ theory of cycles arising from infrastructure investments; Schumpeter`s theory of cycles due to waves of technological innovation; Goodwin`s theory of cyclical growth based on employment and wage share dynamics; Keynes – Kaldor – Kalecki demand and investment oriented theori...

We show whether central clearing of a particular class of derivatives lowers counterparty risk. For plausible cases, adding a central clearing counterparty (CCP) for a class of derivatives such as credit default swaps reduces netting efficiency, leading to an increase in average exposure to counterparty default. Further, clearing different classes of derivatives in separate CCPs always increase...

A two-loop (cylinder) amplitude of the 2d pure gravity theory is obtained in the proper-time gauge (g00 = 1, g01 = g10 = 0) in the continuum formulation. The constraint T01 = 0 is solved and used to reduce the problem of field theory to that of quantum mechanics. This reduction can also be proved by using a conformal Ward identity. The amplitude depends on the lengths l1, l2 of the boundaries, ...

Banks are growing ever larger compared to their national economies. We show that increases in relative bank size (measured as a bank’s liabilities divided by national GDP) are linked to banks displaying higher tail risk. This effect is not entirely due to risk channels that disproportionately expose relatively large banks to systematic tail risks, sovereign risks, or banking crises. Instead, we...

We extend the Pukthuanthong and Roll (2009) measure of integration to provide an estimate of systemic risk within international equity markets. Our measure indicates an increasing likelihood of market crashes. The conditional probability of market crashes increases substantially following increases of our risk measure. High levels of our risk measure indicate the probability of a global crash i...