Shafer and Vovk have shown how to base probability theory on game theory. In this framework, we give probabilities an empirical predictive meaning by means of a form Cournot's principle, which says that reality will not permit gambler win disproportionately the capital he risks. How does principle apply causal interpretation graphical models?

P robabilistic graphical models (PGMs) have become a popular tool for computational analysis of biological data in a variety of domains. But, what exactly are they and how do they work? How can we use PGMs to discover patterns that are biologically relevant? And to what extent can PGMs help us formulate new hypotheses that are testable at the bench? This Message sketches out some answers and il...

Statistical applications in fields such as bioinformatics, information retrieval, speech processing, image processing and communications often involve large-scale models in which thousands or millions of random variables are linked in complex ways. Graphical models provide a general methodology for approaching these problems, and indeed many of the models developed by researchers in these appli...