This paper analyzes the effects of lower bound for interest rates on distributions inflation and rates. In a New Keynesian model with bound, two equilibria emerge: policy is mostly unconstrained in “target equilibrium,” whereas constrained “liquidity trap equilibrium.” Using options data inflation, we find forecast densities consistent target equilibrium no evidence favor liquidity equilibrium....

This paper compares Kaleckian and Harrodian models of accumulation. The simplicity of the canonical Kaleckian model is appealing but more complex Harrodian speci…cations are preferable from a behavioral perspective. The local instability of Harrodian-inspired speci…cations, moreover, o¤ers a uni…ed understanding of both trend and cycles. JEL classi…cation: E12, E32, O41

We study what happens to identified shocks and dynamic responses when the data generating process features q disturbances but 1 < variables are used in an empirical model. Identified linear combinations of current past values all structural do not necessarily combine same type. Theory-based restrictions may be insufficient obtain dynamics. revisit evidence regarding transmission house price ...

The social cost of carbon is the expected present value damages from emitting one ton today. We use perturbation theory to derive an approximate tractable expression for this adjusted climatic and economic risk. allow different aversion risk intertemporal fluctuations, skewness dynamics in distributions climate sensitivity damage ratio, correlated shocks. identify prudence, insurance, exposure ...

After the Great Recession several central banks started setting negative nominal interest rates in an expansionary attempt, but effectiveness of this measure remains unclear. Negative can stimulate economy by lowering that commercial charge on loans, they also erode bank profitability squeezing deposit spreads. This paper studies effects a new DSGE model where intermediate transmission monetary...

We document that government spending multipliers depend on the population age structure. Using variation in military and birth rates across US states, we show local fiscal multiplier is 1.5 increases with share of young people, implying 1.1–1.9 interquartile range. A parsimonious life cycle open economy New Keynesian model credit market imperfections age-specific differences labor supply demand...

We build a model in which the Fed and market disagree about future aggregate demand. The anticipates monetary policy “mistakes,” affect current demand induce to partially accommodate market’s view. expects implement its view gradually. Announcements that reveal an unexpected change Fed’s belief provide microfoundation for shocks. Tantrum shocks arise when misinterprets overreacts announcement. ...

This paper assesses the importance of heterogeneity in household portfolios for transmission monetary policy a New Keynesian business cycle model with uninsurable income risk and assets different liquidity. In this environment, works through investment, but redistribution lowers elasticity investment via two channels: (i) marginal propensities to invest, (ii) time variation liquidity premium. M...