On the basis of the similarity of brain-damaged Ss to process schizophrenics and judgmental studies of the amount of confusion in thinking exhibited in Comprehension, Vocabulary, and Similarities (C-V-S) test protocols for such Ss, 3 out of 4 predictions of diagnostic judgmental errors in judging global C-V-S test protocols were confirmed. 45 PhD clinicians, with a minimum of 4 yr. clinical exp...

In recent years, commercial banks have moved toward automated forms of underwriting and away from the judgmental review of loan applications. This paper employs unique bank loan-level data from a scoring lender to assess the impact of different underwriting approaches on applicant outcomes. To determine whether automated underwriting exhibits a potential “disparate impact” across income strata ...

The task was to position a dot to lie one line length beyond the vertex of an angle by mentally extending one line segment forming the angle (and later the other line segment). Eight angles, variously oriented, provided judgmental errors attributable to the size of the subtended angle and line orientation. Collinearity errors are consistent with the hypothesis that the sizes of all subtended an...

A decomposition of the Brier skill score shows that the performance of judgmental forecasts depends on seven components: environmental predictability, fidelity of the information system, match between environment and forecaster, reliability of information acquisition, reliability of information processing, conditional bias, and unconditional bias. These components provide a framework for resear...

Experts and their judgments are widely used in the fields of research, education, health care, law, commerce and technology. Expert judgment is known for its subjectivity and its potential for bias, which brings into question the accuracy and authenticity of judgmental data. At the same time there is acknowledgment of the valued contribution of judgmental data towards valid inferences in resear...

The behaviour of poker players and sports gamblers has been shown to change after winning or losing a significant amount of money on a single hand. In this paper, we explore whether there are changes in experts’ behaviour when performing judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts and, in particular, examine the impact of ‘big losses’. We define a big loss as a judgmental adjustment that si...

We present ongoing work on a model-driven decision support system (DSS) that is aimed at providing guidance on reflecting and adjusting judgmental forecasts. We consider judgmental forecasts of cash flows generated by local experts in numerous subsidiaries of an international corporation. Forecasts are generated in a decentralized, non-standardized fashion, and corporate managers and controller...