This paper examines stationarity and cointegration of health expenditure and GDP, for a sample of 21 OECD countries using data for the period 1960-1997, by applying a test battery that allows robust inference to be made on the stationarity and cointegration issue. Trend stationarity and no-cointegration are tested using new country-by-country and panel tests, not previously applied in this sett...

In this paper, we study a smooth-transition type of nonlinear cointegration among a dynamic system, in which the proposed definition nests Engle and Granger (1987)’s linear cointegration. Based on the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models, a triangular representation for the nonlinearly cointegrated system is introduced. Furthermore, two tests for nonlinear cointegration are derived in...

Inflation forecasts are an important part of modern day activist stabilization policy, and hence their accuracy and credibility is of vital importance. We examine the accuracy of these forecasts by testing for rationality in the expectation formation process using the Survey of Professional Forecasters data surveys of annual inflation forecasts. The non-stationarity of the actual and forecasted...

This paper considers alternative methods of testing cointegration in fractionally integrated processes, using the bootstrap. The special feature of the fractional case is the dependence of the asymptotic null distributions of conventional statistics on the fractional integration parameter. Such tests are said to be asymptotically non-pivotal, and conventional asymptotic tests are therefore not ...

We used unit root and cointegration techniques to determine the long run relationship between GDP and investment for 90 countries using data from World Bank for the period 1960-1992. In the first step of our analysis we found GDP and investment integrated of different orders for 33 countries. Second step of our analysis shows no cointegration between GDP and investment for 25 countries and coin...

Cointegration is an important topic for timeseries, and describes a relationship between two series in which a linear combination is stationary. Classically, the test for cointegration is based on a two stage process in which first the linear relation between the series is estimated by Ordinary Least Squares. Subsequently a unit root test is performed on the residuals. A well-known deficiency o...

We consider cointegration tests in the situation where the cointegration rank is deficient. This situation is of interest in finite sample analysis and in relation to recent work on identification robust cointegration inference. We derive asymptotic theory for tests for cointegration rank and for hypotheses on the cointegrating vectors. The limiting distributions are tabulated. An application t...