We study optimal monetary and fiscal policy at the zero lower bound in a small open economy model with sticky prices and a flexible exchange rate. In such a liquidity trap situation, the economy suffers from a negative output gap, producer price deflation, and an appreciated real exchange rate (compared to its efficient level). The extent of these adverse effects and the duration of the liquidi...

With integrated trade and financial markets, a sudden collapse in aggregate demand in a large country can cause ‘natural real interest rates’ to fall below zero in other countries, giving rise to a global ‘liquidity trap’. This paper explores the optimal policy response following such a shock, when governments cooperate on both fiscal and monetary policy. Adjusting to a large negative demand sh...

This paper relies on the new Keynesian model with in‡ation persistence to characterize the optimal monetary and …scal policy in a liquidity trap. It shows that, with a Phillips curve that is both forward and backward looking, the monetary policy that is implemented during a liquidity trap episode can lift the economy out of depression. The central bank does not need to commit beyond the end of ...

THE LIQUIDITY TRAP-that awkward condition in which monetary policy loses its grip because the nominal interest rate is essentially zero, in which the quantity of money becomes irrelevant because money and bonds are essentially perfect substitutes-played a central role in the early years of macroeconomics as a discipline. John Hicks, in introducing both the IS-LM model and the liquidity trap, id...

There is little risk of deflation and a liquidity trap in the euro area. Inflation and short-and long-term inflation expectations are relatively close to 2% per year. With the current short nominal interest rate at 2%, there is ample room for more expansionary monetary policy if needed, and there is no reason to doubt the effectiveness of standard monetary policy in the euro area. Although temp...

This is an original, intriguing, and timely paper. Its direct motivation stems from the unprecedented global policy response to the 2007–08 financial crisis. To a large extent, monetary policymakers worldwide have been recently sailing in uncharted waters. Interest rates in several countries have been slashed to exceptionally low levels, and at the time of this writing they are expected to stay...

I present a unified framework to analyze debt relief and macroprudential policies in a liquidity trap when households have private information. I develop a model with a deleveragingdriven recession and a liquidity trap in which households differ in their impatience, which is unobservable. Ex post debt relief stimulates the economy, but anticipated debt relief encourages overborrowing ex ante, m...

In the basic New Keynesian model in which the monetary authority operates a Taylor rule, multiple rational expectations equilibria arise, some of which display all the features of a liquidity trap. We show that a loss in confidence can set the economy on a deflationary path that eventually prevents the monetary authority from adjusting the interest rate and can lead to potentially very large ou...

A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented that makes use of a …nite mixture of many model structures within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. It is applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the “Great Ratios” in U.S. macro-economic time series is investigated, together with the e¤ect of permanent shocks on business cycles. Second, the linear VAR model is ext...