We study the influence of explanatory variables in prediction by looking at the distribution of the log-odds ratio. We also consider the predictive influence of a subset of unobserved future variables on the distribution of log-odds ratio as well as in a logistic model, via the Bayesian predictive density of a future observation. This problem is considered for dichotomous, as well as continuous...

High dividend yields imply that either future dividend growth must be low, or future discount rates must be high, or both. While previous studies have focused on the predictability of expected returns from dividend yields, dividend yields also strongly predict future dividends, and the predictability of dividend growth is much stronger than discount rates returns at a 1-year horizon. Inference ...