This paper studies the role of exchange rate volatility in determining the UK’s real imports from three major developing countries Brazil, China, and South Africa. The paper contributes to the literature by investigating the third country effect and also by analyzing the impact of the current financial crisis on the relationship between exchange rate volatility and UK imports. This paper furthe...

We examine the long-run relationship between tourism development and economic growth using Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model for Bangladesh annual data from 1980-2016. find an asymmetric Bangladesh's economy since a one percent increase in receipt increases by about 0.19 percent. On contrary, due to decline receipt, will decrease 0.66 So, have higher negative impact on than...

This paper examines the monetary transmission mechanism in the countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CAEMC). Specifically, we focus on the very first step of this mechanism namely the interest rate pass-through from short-term interest rates towards long-term rates. Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ADRL) model, we show that there is evidence of a very low and...

Time-series cross-section (TSCS) data are prevalent in political science, yet many distinct challenges presented by TSCS remain underaddressed. We focus on how dependence both space and time complicates estimating either spatial or temporal dependence, dynamics, effects. Little is known about modeling one of cross-sectional well while neglecting the other affects results analysis. demonstrate a...

This study examines the asymmetric effects of positive and negative changes in media attention to COVID-19 daily new confirmed cases on China’s stock market volatility by utilizing nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Empirical results show that has a pronounced effect this is greater than direct impact COVID-19. Finally, several important policy implications arise from these...

This study tries to answer the question, “has macroeconomic instability detrimental impact on gross domestic product of Pakistan over the period of 1980 to 2012?” For reviewing macroeconomic instability a comprehensive macroeconomic instability index is constructed by incorporating inflation rate, unemployment rate, trade deficit and budget deficit. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model h...

This paper proposes a new system-equation test for threshold cointegration based on a threshold vector autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model. The new test can be applied when the cointegrating vector is unknown and when weak exogeneity fails. The asymptotic null distribution of the new test is derived, critical values are tabulated, and finite-sample properties are examined. In particular,...

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, an...