The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, an...

In terms of sharp drop of international oil prices in the second half of 2008 after heading skyward in the first half of 2008 following continual growth since 2005, while at the same time certain parity among energy prices was disrupted, the author of this article tried to investigate key factors that influenced oil and gas industry and to answer the question what would be a »fair» price of cru...

Previous economic analyses focused on relationships between crude oil and natural gas markets centered primarily on demand-side considerations. We provide evidence that two important supply-side connections play important roles in understanding crude oil and natural gas market integration. First, crude oil production and natural gas production require a common capital input: rotary drilling rig...

â â â  â â â  abstract â  using a structural var with block exogeneity, diagonality and identifying restrictions, this paper analyzes: first, the macroeconomic linkages among the oil price, u.s. output, interest rate, money supply, general price level and exchange rate and second, the relationships of the macroeconomic variables with the price indices of ten international nonfuel commodity grou...

Acute volatile movements in primary commodity prices have drawn enough interests from empirical researchers. Exports of these commodities account for the bulk of export earnings of developing countries. The traditional demand based framework has been unable to explain the marked deterioration in these prices during 1980s. This paper tries to ascertain the role played by real oil prices in expla...

Could propane from Alaska’s North Slope reduce energy costs for electric utilities and residential space heating, water heating, and cooking demands? We explored the hypothesis that propane is a viable alternative for fourteen selected communities along the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers, coastal Alaska, and Fairbanks. Our analysis forecasts propane and fuel prices at the wholesale and retail level...

This research attempts to propose a new measure of investor psychological bias with big data crawled from the web. The author constructs the investor bias measure with web search data and investigate the influences of this new measure on crude oil futures prices. Using 225,250 data points from Google, this paper computes the investor bias, and evaluates it with trading volumes. The author estab...

Beginning in early 2011, crude oil production in the U.S. Midwest and Canada surpassed the pipeline capacity to transport it to the Gulf Coast where it could access the world oil market. As a result, the U.S. “benchmark” crude oil price in Cushing, Oklahoma, declined substantially relative to internationally traded oil. In this paper, we study how this development affected prices for refined pr...