We study the transport properties of nonautonomous chaotic dynamical systems over a finite-time duration. We are particularly interested in those regions that remain coherent and relatively nondispersive over finite periods of time, despite the chaotic nature of the system. We develop a novel probabilistic methodology based upon transfer operators that automatically detect maximally coherent se...

Vague and incomplete data represented as linguistic values massively exists in diverse real-word applications. The task of forecasting fuzzy time series under uncertain circumstances is thus of great important but difficult. The inherent uncertainty involving time evolution usually makes the transition of states in a system probabilistic. In this paper, we proposed a new forecasting model based...

Probabilistic forecasting, i.e. estimating the probability distribution of a time series’ future given its past, is a key enabler for optimizing business processes. In retail businesses, for example, forecasting demand is crucial for having the right inventory available at the right time at the right place. In this paper we propose DeepAR, a methodology for producing accurate probabilistic fore...

Probabilistic forecasts account for the uncertainty in the prediction helping the decision makers take optimal decisions. With the emergence of renewable technologies and the uncertainties involved with the power generated through them, probabilistic forecasts can come to the rescue. Wind power is a mature technology and is in place for decades now, various probabilistic forecasting techniques ...

In this work, we assess the performance of three probabilistic models for intra-day solar forecasting. More precisely, a linear quantile regression method is used to build three models for generating 1 h–6 h-ahead probabilistic forecasts. Our approach is applied to forecasting solar irradiance at a site experiencing highly variable sky conditions using the historical ground observations of sola...