The effectiveness and accuracy of detection using environmental DNA (eDNA) is dependent on understanding the influence laboratory methods such as DNA extraction and PCR strategies have on detection probability. Ideally choice of sampling and extraction method will maximize eDNA yield and detection probability. Determining the survey effort required to reach a satisfactory detection probability ...

This chapter is a comprehensive overview of sampling methods for web and e-mail (‘Internetbased’) surveys. It reviews the various types of sampling method – both probability and nonprobability – and examines their applicability to Internet-based surveys. Issues related to Internetbased survey sampling are discussed, including difficulties assembling sampling frames for probability sampling, cov...

With gravitational-wave detection on the horizon, astronomers look for ways of extracting useful information from a detected gravitational wave. Like its electromagnetic cousin, a gravitational wave carries important information about the characteristics of its source, and these characteristics can be recovered through numerical analysis. Using one promising technique known as a Metropolis-Hast...

Most aircraft fleets nowadays are operating under the concept of damage tolerance, which requires an aircraft to have sufficient residual strength in the presence of damage in one of its principal structural elements (PSE) during the interval of service inspections. The residual strength however is significantly reduced due to multi site damage (MSD). In the present paper, a probabilistic frame...

We present an importance sampling technique for enhancing the efficiency of sampling rare transition events in Markov processes. Our approach is based on the design of an importance function by which the absolute probability of sampling a successful transition event is significantly enhanced, while preserving the relative probabilities among different successful transition paths. The method fea...

This paper develops a new modified Bayesian Kriging (MBKG) surrogate modeling method for problems in which simulation analyses are inherently noisy and thus standard Kriging approaches fail to properly represent the responses. The purpose is to develop a method that can be used to carry out reliability analysis to predict probability of failure. The formulation of the MBKG surrogate modeling me...

This paper aims to estimate the joint default probability under the structuralform model with a random environment; namely stochastic correlation. By means of a singular perturbation method, we obtain an asymptotic expansion of a two-name joint default probability under a fast mean-reverting stochastic correlation model. The leading order term in the expansion is a joint default probability wit...