this paper evaluates the real exchange rate fluctuations and uncertainties resulting from it, in the iranian economy. for this purpose, at first indirect effect of real exchange rate uncertainties on economic growth through foreign investment, private investment and exports are expressed, then the real exchange rate uncertainties and its relationship with economic growth and final pattern of in...

This paper shows that volatility persistence in GARCH models and spurious long memory in autoregressive models may arise if the possibility of structural changes is not incorporated in the time series model. It also describes a tractable hidden Markov model in which regression parameters and error variances may undergo abrupt changes at unknown time points, while staying constant between adjace...

We consider model selection for non-linear dynamic equations with more candidate variables than observations, based on a general class of non-linear-in-the-variables functions, addressing possible location shifts by impulse-indicator saturation. After an automatic search delivers a simplified congruent terminal model, an encompassing test can be implemented against an investigator’s preferred n...

This study re-examines the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) by focusing on the real effective exchange rates (REERs) for the post-Bretton Woods period, using newly developed unit root tests that account for both nonlinearity and smooth temporary multiple breaks in the data. The tests are applied to the REERs of 23 developed countries and are able to reject the null hypothesis of a unit...

We estimate a monetary policy rule for the US allowing for possible frequency dependence i.e., allowing the central bank to respond differently to persistent innovations than to transitory innovations, in both the real-time unemployment rate and the real-time inflation rate. The method is flexible, and requires no strong a priori assumptions on the pattern of frequency dependence or on the natu...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the ability of parameter instability tests in regressions with I(1) processes to discriminate between changes in the cointegrating relationship and changes in the marginal distribution of the regressors. Using annual data for the G-7 countries and the Purchasing Power Parity, we conclude that the regression coefficient between the price level differen...

An increase in credit, especially consumption can trigger aggregate demand growth above potential output which causes the economy to heat up. This study aims analyze effect of macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, inflation, and gross domestic product (GDP), on for property credit Indonesia with period January 2011 – December 2018. The results show that short term, rate lag 1 2, infl...

The RER which is theoretically influenced by the real interest rate differential (RRE) and currency excess return (CER), is statistically examined during 1990-2016. Accordingly, the stationarity of RER as null hypothesis is not approved in the Iranian economy. Therefore, the TVAR method is examined to analyze the nonstationary RER sample to two sub-periods stationary process which are both stat...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the short-term interest-rate dynamics based on three different data sets and two flexible parametric specifications. The significance of nonlinearity in the short-rate drift declines with increasing maturity for the interest-rate series used in the study. Using a flexible diffusion specification and incorporating GARCH volatility and non-normal in...