We review issues of prediction and discuss their relevance to the prediction of sexual offender recidivism. First, we briefly discuss the different types of sex offenses, rates of these offenses, and rates of recidivism among sex offenders. We then discuss key issues in the field of prediction, with special attention given to the relative advantages and disadvantages of clinical and statistical...

Actuarial risk assessment scales and their associated recidivism estimates are generally developed on samples of offenders whose average age is well below 50 years. Criminal behavior of all types declines with age; consequently, actuarial scales tend to overestimate recidivism for older offenders. The current study aimed to develop a revised scoring system for two risk assessment tools (Static-...

Past aggression is a potent predictor of future aggression and informs the prediction of violent criminal recidivism. However, aggression is a heterogeneous construct and different types of aggression may confer different levels of risk for future violence. In this prospective study of 91 adults in a pretrial diversion program, we examined (a) premeditated versus impulsive aggression in the pre...

We prospectively examined the short- and long-term prediction of several recidivism outcomes as a function of psychopathy and age in a sample of 273 Canadian federal inmates with an average 24 years post-release follow-up. Offenders were rated using the original 22-item Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL: Hare, 1980) based on extensive archival file information, and the ratings were used to comput...

The current study examined the impact of exposure to violence and neighborhood disadvantage on criminal recidivism among Black (n = 69) and White (n = 53) female juvenile offenders. Participants were girls between the ages of 13 and 19 (M = 16.8; SD = 1.2) who were sentenced to secure custody. Using a multi-method research design, the study assessed neighborhood disadvantage through census leve...

Empirical support for the usage of the SAVRY has been reported in studies conducted in many Western contexts, but not in a Singaporean context. This study compared the predictive validity of the SAVRY ratings for violent and general recidivism against the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) ratings within the Singaporean context. Using a sample of 165 male young offenders...

Prisoners' forecasts of post-release success may have implications for how they respond to imprisonment, release, and parole decisions. We examined sentenced US and UK prisoners' forecasts of recidivism, and how well UK prisoners believed they would fare compared to the average other prisoner. In both samples, forecasts of recidivism were unrealistically optimistic when compared to official sta...

This study used a data set from the Serious and Violent Reentry Initiative evaluation to measure the effect of peer instrumental support on recidivism. To examine recidivism, this study looked at self-reported criminal activity as well as new arrests in the first 15 months after release. Peer instrumental support was recorded at three different time periods: one to three months, three to nine m...

Sexual offending has attracted increasing public concern because of its long-term effects. Although there is an increasing amount of research on the risk factors for recidivism among youth who have sexually offended, there is a dearth of research on the protective factors for desistence from recidivism. The current study investigated the associations between protective factors and recidivism am...

The present study examines the long term recidivism patterns of a group of unauthorized immigrants identified to be at high risk of recidivism. Using a sample of 517 male unauthorized immigrants, we used three measures of recidivism to assess nine-year rearrest differences between unauthorized immigrants who have and who have not been previously removed from the United States. Results indicate ...