Climate projections for the fourth assessment report1 (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were based on scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios2 (SRES) and simulations of the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project3 (CMIP3). Since then, a new set of four scenarios (the representative concentration pathways or RCPs) was designed4. Clima...

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the...

In this paper, we investigate an ensemble of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) participating in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), and whose dynamic behavior is emulated by the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6. Using a superimposed impulse in solar radiative forcing for the purposes of system identification, we identify 12 AOGCMs in the CMIP...

This study investigated the potential impacts of climate change on water scarcity and hydrological extremes in Yellow River Basin near-term (2026–2050), mid-term (2051–2075), long-term (2076–2100) periods under three combined pathways Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Representative Concentration (RCPs) SSP1–2.6, SSP2–45, SSP5–8.5 relative to reference period (1986–2010), based runoff simula...

Anchovy ( Engraulis japonicus ), a commercially and biologically important fish species in Korean waters, is small pelagic sensitive to environmental change. Future changes its distribution waters with significant change remain poorly understood. In this study, we examined the projected seasonal anchovy habitat 2050s under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) by...

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model In...

Forest conservation strategies and plans can be unsuccessful if the new habitat conditions determined by climate change are not considered. Our work aims at investigating the likelihood of future suitability, distribution and diversity for some common European forest species under the projected changes in climate, focusing on Southern Europe. We combine an Ensemble Platform for Species Distribu...

Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at th...

Hydrological components in a river basin can get adversely affected by climate change in coming future. Manipur River basin lies in the extreme northeast region of India nestled in the lesser Himalayan ranges and it is under severe pressure from anthropogenic and natural factors. Basin is un-gauged as it lies in remote location and suffering from large data scarcity. This paper explores the imp...