This paper shows that volatility persistence in GARCH models and spurious long memory in autoregressive models may arise if the possibility of structural changes is not incorporated in the time series model. It also describes a tractable hidden Markov model in which regression parameters and error variances may undergo abrupt changes at unknown time points, while staying constant between adjace...

This paper derives analytical results for determination of the window size that explores the trade-off between bias and forecast error variance to minimize the mean squared forecast error in the presence of breaks. We show analytically how to determine the estimation window optimally for the case with strictly exogenous regressors. Through Monte Carlo simulations the paper compares the performa...

the iranian poultry sector has experienced many significant structural changes in recent years. such changes may have influenced price dynamics and transmission of shocks through marketing channels especially on retail markets. this paper investigate price transmission, threshold behavior and asymmetric adjustment in poultry sector of ardebil (ar), east azerbaijan (ea) and west azerbaijan (wa) ...

This paper analyses the determinants of happiness in seven Eastern European transition countries during the early phase of economic transition. The analysis of representative survey data in an ordered logit model shows that those core socio-demographic and economic variables known to be relevant from studies on the US and Western European countries have a similar impact on happiness in Eastern ...

Death statutes in the United States list elements of loss for which a defendent must make compensatory payment. The element that economists as expert witnesses are called upon to calculate is net income, roughly deÞned as the decedent’s income minus personal expenses. The existence of joint or shared consumption goods complicates the deÞnition and calculation of net income. Net income can be in...

This paper studies whether pro-environmental consumption choices are consistent with utility maximization and what role the consumption behavior of reference persons and one’s own past behavior play in this context. By combining data on individuals’ pro-environmental consumption from a unique data set with data on subjective well-being, we find that people could attain higher well-being (utilit...

Employment may be important to well-being for reasons beyond its role as an income source. This paper presents a causal estimate of the psychosocial value employment in refugee camps Bangladesh. We involve 745 individuals field experiment with three arms: control arm, weekly cash and arm equal value. raises substantially more than alone, 66 percent employed are willing forgo payments continue w...

Previous work has shown that preferences are not always stable across time, but surprisingly little is known about the reasons for this instability. I examine whether variation in people's emotions over time predicts changes risk attitudes. Using a large-panel dataset, identify happiness, anger, and fear as significant correlates of within-person Robustness checks indicate limited role alternat...

Measurement error is ubiquitous in experimental work. It leads to imperfect statistical controls, attenuated estimated effects of elicited behaviors, and biased correlations between characteristics. We develop statistical techniques for handling experimental measurement error. These techniques are applied to data from the Caltech Cohort Study, which conducts repeated incentivized surveys of the...

ABSTRACT Past studies have shown that changes in the house price of a region may transmit to its neighbouring regions. The transmission mechanism may follow spatial and temporal diffusion processes. This paper investigates such regional housing market dynamics and interactions among local housing sub-markets in Taipei. The analysis is based on a panel data framework and spatial panel models usi...