Equilibrium business cycle models have typically less shocks than variables. As pointed out by Altug, 1989 and Sargent, 1989, if variables are measured with error, this characteristic implies that the model solution for measured variables has a factor structure. This paper compares estimation performance for the impulse response coefficients based on a VAR approximation to this class of models ...

We offer a framework to analyze Value-at-Risk based regulation rules and their possible distortion effects on financial markets. Our model is formulated in a continuous-time economy where investors maximize expected utility subject to some regulatory Value-at-Risk constraint when asset price dynamics are not lognormal and exhibit stochastic volatility. To retain tractability of the optimization...

This paper compares the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of five classes of time series models for market shares of the six most important Portuguese car market competitors over different horizons. As representative time series models I employ a random walk with drift (Naive), a univariate ARIMA, a near-VAR and a general BVAR. The out-of-sample forecasts are also compared against forecasts ge...

This Paper describes a procedure for constructing theory restricted prior distributions for BVAR models. The Bayes Factor, which is obtained without any additional computational effort, can be used to assess the plausibility of the restrictions imposed on the VAR parameter vector by competing DSGE models. In other words, it is possible to rank the amount of abstraction implied by each DSGE mode...

This Paper examines the causality and long-run relationships between economic growth and Tourism development in developing countries using P-VAR approach during 1995-2009. The findings reveal that there is a bilateral causality and positive long-run relationship between economic growth and Tourism development. In the other words, the tourism-led growth hypothesis is confirmed, as well as, outpu...

We examine the relation between trading volume and skewness in 11 international stock markets using daily and monthly data from January 1980 to August 2004. We construct single equation and VAR models of the relation between the first three moments of market returns and trading volumes. Our results show hitherto unrecognised channels of influence, and support the investor heterogeneity approach...

This paper presents an optimal portfolio selection approach based on value at risk (VaR), conditional value at risk (CVaR), worst-case value at risk (WVaR) and partitioned value at risk (PVaR) measures as well as calculating these risk measures. Mathematical solution methods for solving these optimization problems are inadequate and very complex for a portfolio with high number of assets. For t...

we have studied the relation between bank deposit rates and house prices in iran. for that, we have run some var models, using the following variables: real deposit rates (including 1 and 5 years deposit rates), money supply (including the high powered money and the liquidity), gdp, housing services index, and number of licenses for new houses. our results show that a reduction in the deposit r...

return and volatility spillovers are important for portfolio selection, asset valuation and market efficiency investigation. using a var-bekk framework model, this paper investigates return and volatility spillover effects between three size-sorted equity indices in tehran stock exchange (tse). although daily return of large stocks leads small stocks (lead-lag effect), there wasn’t any spillove...

We examine the impact of adding either a VaR or a CVaR constraint to the mean–variance model when security returns are assumed to have a discrete distribution with finitely many jump points. Three main results are obtained. First, portfolios on the VaR-constrained boundary exhibit (K + 2)-fund separation, where K is the number of states for which the portfolios suffer losses equal to the VaR bo...