Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult task facing forecasters. Fuzzy autoregressive integrated moving average (FARIMA) models are the fuzzy improved version of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, proposed in order to overcome limitations of the traditional ARIMA models; especially data limitation, and yield...

Dynamic yield models based on Irish research data and internationally accepted forest modelling principles have been produced for a number of Irish forest tree species. These models facilitate bespoke forest management planning and practice. The models are available to and used by the private forestry sector using a user friendly computer interface called GROWFOR. The models are also integrated...

There is a significant amount of empirical evidence to suggest that the yield curve is useful for forecasting inflation, recessions, and possibly even the growth rate of real output. This essay considers the theoretical reasons why the yield curve may have these predictive properties. It is found that the essential reason why the yield curve predicts inflation and recessions is that it, through...

artificial neural networks (anns) are flexible computing frameworks and universal approximators that can be applied to a wide range of time series forecasting problems with a high degree of accuracy. however, despite of all advantages cited for artificial neural networks, they have data limitation and need to the large amount of historical data in order to yield accurate results. therefore, the...

Following the unconventional gas revolution, the forecasting of natural gas prices has become increasingly important because the association of these prices with those of crude oil has weakened. With this as motivation, we propose some modified hybrid models in which various combinations of the wavelet approximation, detail components, autoregressive integrated moving average, generalized autor...

The objective of the Mars Crop Yield Forecasting Systems is to provide precise, scientific, traceable independent and timely forecasts for the main crops yields at EU level. The forecasts and analysis are used since 2001 as a benchmark by analysts from DG – Agriculture and Rural Development in charge of food balance estimates. Core of the Crop Yield Forecasting System is a spatialized crop grow...

The aim of this paper is to determine whether the existing leading indicators system CROLEI (CROatian Leading Economic Indicators) and its derivative, the CROLEI forecasting index, predict overall Croatian economic activity reliably. The need to evaluate the CROLEI system and the index stems from the modification of the barometric method on which the system and the index are founded on in its a...