SUMMARY The spatio-temporal properties of seismicity give us incisive insight into the stress state evolution and fault structures crust. Empirical models based on self-exciting point processes continue to provide an important tool for analysing seismicity, given epistemic uncertainty associated with physical models. In particular, epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model acts as a refere...

Las Enfermedades Transmitidas por Alimentos (ETAs) representan un impacto en la salud pública, debido que son causante del incremento de las tasas mortalidad y morbilidad, generando mayores efectos negativos los países bajos medianos ingresos. En el presente manuscrito se reporta rebrote ETAs ocurrido región Callao, Perú, cual afectó a 33 personas con sintomatología persistente nivel gastrointe...

Abstract Strong earthquakes cause aftershock sequences that are clustered in time according to a power decay law, and space along their extended rupture, shaping typically elongate pattern of locations. A widely used approach model earthquake clustering, the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, shows three major biases. First, conventional ETAS assumes isotropic spatial triggering, w...

We present an analytical solution and numerical tests of the epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model for aftershocks, which describes foreshocks, aftershocks and mainshocks on the same footing. In this model, each earthquake of magnitude m triggers aftershocks with a rate proportional to 10. The occurrence rate of aftershocks triggered by a single mainshock decreases with the time from the mainsh...

The estimation of branching point process models by maximum likelihood can be unstable and computationally intensive. We explore an alternative estimation method based on the Expectation1 Maximization algorithm. The method involves viewing the estimation of such branching processes as analogous to incomplete data problems. Using an application from seismology, we show how the Epidemic-type Afte...

Abstract We present an analysis of lifetimes and resonances Earth Trojan Asteroids (ETAs) in the MEGASIM data set. asteroids co-orbit Sun with a planet, but remain bound to Lagrange points, L4 (60° leading planet) or L5 trailing). In circular three-body approximation, stability asteroid depends on ratio host planet mass central mass. For inner planets, range becomes increasingly small, so pertu...

Fundamentally related to the ultraviolet (UV) divergence problem in physics, conventional wisdom statistical seismology is that smallest earthquakes, which are numerous and often go undetected, dominate triggering of major making accurate forecasting latter difficult if not inherently impossible. Using general class epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models rigorous pseudo-prospective exp...

Abstract The development of robust forecasts human-induced seismicity is highly desirable to mitigate the effects disturbing or damaging earthquakes. We assess performance a well-established statistical model, epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) with catalog ?93,000 microearthquakes observed at Preston New Road (PNR, United Kingdom) unconventional shale gas site during, and after hydraulic...