We estimate an empirical model of consumption disasters using new data on consumption for 24 countries over more than 100 years, and study its implications for asset prices. The model allows for partial recoveries after disasters that unfold over multiple years. We find that roughly half of the drop in consumption due to disasters is subsequently reversed. Our model generates a sizable equity p...

We study the trading of individual investors using transaction data and identifying buyeror seller-initiated trades. We document four results: (1) Small trade order imbalance correlates well with order imbalance based on trades from retail brokers. (2) Individual investors herd. (3) When measured annually, small trade order imbalance forecasts future returns; stocks heavily bought underperform ...

This paper tests whether traders react more strongly as a series of similar earnings surprises continues, as predicted by several important behavioral finance models. We compile measures of buying and selling from NYSE TAQ data for a large ten-year sample. Results show strong, consistent, evidence that small traders exhibit an increasing reaction – with significant increases in reaction strengt...

This paper investigates the performance of hedge funds adjusted for higher order risk factors. Traditional risk-adjusted performance measures are subject to size distorted in the presence of skewness and kurtosis. A residual augmented least squares approach to model higher order risk moments in returns allows us to estimate a robust risk-adjusted performance measure for hedge funds. In a compar...

This paper provides evidence that “illusory correlations,” a well-documented source of cognitive bias, leads some agents to be imperfectly rational noise traders. We identify illusory correlations by focusing on the head-and-shoulders chart pattern. Though this is considered one of the most reliable technical trading signals, our evidence indicates that the signal does not profitably predict di...

This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expectations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification Equilibrium agents only select the best-performing statistical models. We demonstrate that, even when mone...

We develop a multi-asset trading model to examine the closed-end fund discount. The model shows that the discount can arise if the quality of private information in the underlying assets is sufficiently better than in the fund. The model also indicates that a discount (premium) can arise if the excessive volatility of the fund dominates (is dominated by) the fund’s diversification benefit. More...

We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market with trader identifiers at a tick transaction level. Jumps are frequent events and they cluster in time. The order flow imbalance and the preponderance of aggr...

This study analyzes the market quality differences, in terms of liquidity and volatility, between Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and non-REIT common stocks. The 2008 financial crisis has significantly influenced the market quality for REITs. Our findings reveal intraday patterns indicating a lower liquidity, higher volatility, and greater price impact for REITs than nonREITs for pre-cris...

This paper investigates the effects of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) hedging activity on interest-rate volatility and proposes a model that takes these effects into account. An empirical examination suggests that the inclusion of information about MBS considerably improves model performance in pricing interest-rate options and in forecasting future interest-rate volatility. The empirical res...