We measure net arbitrage trading by the difference between abnormal hedge fund equity holdings and abnormal short interest on a stock. In the cross section, net arbitrage trading strongly predicts future stock returns. This predictability is not due to temporary price pressure, cannot be produced using total institutional holdings, but is consistent with information advantage and copycat tradin...

Energy arbitrage has the potential to make electric grids more efficient and reliable. Batteries hold great promise for energy storage in arbitrage but can degrade rapidly with use. In this paper, we analyze the impact of storage degradation on the structure of optimal policies in energy arbitrage. We derive properties of the battery degradation response that are sufficient for the existence of...

We argue that arbitrage is limited if rational traders face uncertainty about when their peers will exploit a common arbitrage opportunity. This synchronization risk—which is distinct from noise trader risk and fundamental risk—arises in our model because arbitrageurs become sequentially aware of mispricing and they incur holding costs. We show that rational arbitrageurs ‘‘time the market’’ rat...

We present a methodology for modelling real world high frequency financial data. The methodology copes with the erratic arrival of data and is robust to additive outliers in the data set. Arbitrage pricing relationships are formulated into a linear state space representation. Arbitrage opportunities violate these pricing relationships and are analogous to multivariate additive outliers. Robust ...

We propose a method for determining an arbitrage-free density implied by the Hagan formula. (We use the wording “Hagan formula” as an abbreviation of the Hagan– Kumar–Leśniewski–Woodward model.) Our method is based on the stochastic collocation method. The principle is to determine a few collocation points on the implied survival distribution function and project them onto the polynomial of an ...

Unlike the existing literature on sports betting, which concentrates on arbitrage within a single market, this paper examines inter-market arbitrage by searching for arbitrage opportunities through combining bets at the bookmaker and the exchange market. Using the posted odds of eight different bookmakers and the corresponding odds traded at a well-known bet exchange for 5,478 football matches ...

This paper analyzes 4,750 mergers from 1963 to 1998 to characterize the risk and return in risk arbitrage. Results indicate that risk arbitrage returns are positively correlated with market returns in severely depreciating markets but uncorrelated with market returns in f lat and appreciating markets. This suggests that returns to risk arbitrage are similar to those obtained from selling uncove...