This paper quantifies and assesses the impact of an adverse loan supply (LS) shock on Peru's main macroeconomic aggregates using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model in combination with identification scheme sign restrictions. The results indicate that LS shock: (i) reduces credit real GDP growth by 372 75 basis points period, respectively; (ii) explains 11.2% variability average over ...

International relations scholars have developed many theories to describe the evolution and existence of international conflicts. One important idea is the “democratic peace,” which argues that democracies are less likely to engage in conflict with each other. However, much of the work testing democratic peace theory has been static and does not address dynamic, causal mechanisms by which democ...

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has led to enormous data movements that strongly affect parameters and forecasts from standard Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs). To address these issues, we propose BVAR models with outlier-augmented stochastic volatility (SV) combine transitory persistent changes in volatility. resulting density are much less sensitive outliers the than BVARs. Predictive B...

Using a structural time-varying-parameter Bayesian vector autoregression (TVP-BVAR) framework, this paper documents that oil price increases caused by supply disruptions did not affect food commodity prices before the start of millennium, but had positive spillover effects in more recent periods and particularly era around Great Recession. Likewise, shortfalls global resulting from bad harvests...

Prediction distribution is a basis for predictive inferences applied in many real world situations. The Bayesian approach under uniform prior employed this paper to derive the prediction Simultaneous Auto-regressive model with multivariate Student-t error distribution. Conditional on set of realized responses, single and future responses have univariate distributions respectively, whose degrees...

In the assessment of governments’ fiscal performance, exchange rates play some roles while capital movements could serve as determinant discipline. This study examined effects rate devaluation, and inflows, on budgetary spending, interactions among variables using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) sys-generalized method moments (GMM) estimators with 1,184 panel observations. The covers 37 e...

This paper aims at analysing the dynamic properties of real wages over the business cycle. We apply a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model and analyse the possible asymmetric behaviour of real wages in response to different macroeconomic shocks. Finally, we use the NBER business cycle periodisation to evaluate how real wages interact with the different shocks during contractions and boom...

The efficient and sustainable exploitation of energy resources may secure a economic growth for different regions. However, the peripheries are subject to social, economic, political constraints, with limited power over management. present work examines regional convergence in efficiency as synopsized GDP generated by minerals an era country’s efforts shut down lignite-run production. With assi...

Background: Diabetes mellitus as a chronic disease is the most common disease caused by metabolic disorders and it is one of the most important health issues all around the world. Nowadays, data mining methods are applied in different fields of sciences due to data mining methods capability. Therefore, in this study, we compared the efficiency of data mining methods in predicting type 2 diabete...