In reasoning under uncertainty in AI, there are (at least) two useful and different ways of understanding beliefs: the first is as absolute belief or degree of belief in propositions and the second is as belief update or measure of change in belief. Pignistic and plausibility transformations are two wellknown probability transformations that map belief functions to probability functions in the ...

Kyburg goes half-way towards objective Bayesianism. He accepts that frequencies constrain rational belief to an interval but stops short of isolating an optimal degree of belief within this interval. I examine the case for going the whole hog.

We propose a new message-passing belief propagation method that approximates belief updating on evidential networks with conditional belief functions. By means of local conditioning, the method is able to propagate beliefs on the original multiply-connected network structure using local computations, facilitating reasoning in a distributed and dynamic context. Further, by use of conditional bel...

In this paper, we introduce several features of subjective belief bases from both individualistic and collective perspectives and hence provide suitable essential and contingent properties for such belief bases. Essential properties reflect the attributes of a belief base being considered in vacuum, whereas contingent properties of a belief base reveal its characteristics with regards to the re...

This article analyzes and compares several approaches of formalizing the notion of evidence in the context of general-purpose reasoning system. In each of these approaches, the notion of evidence is defined, and the evidence-based degree of belief is represented by a binary value, a number (such as a probability), or two numbers (such as an interval). The binary approaches provide simple ways t...

Identifying a chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear incident (CBRN) is a challenge. Evidence and health symptoms resulting from CBRN malevolent incident overlap with other normal non malevolent human activities. However, proper fusion of symptoms and evidence can aid in drawing conclusions with a certain degree of credibility about the existence of an incident. There are two types of ...

Probabilism is committed to two theses: 1) Opinion comes in degrees—call them degrees of belief, or credences. 2) The degrees of belief of a rational agent obey the probability calculus. Correspondingly, a natural way to argue for probabilism is: i) to give an account of what degrees of belief are, and then ii) to show that those things should be probabilities, on pain of irrationality. Most of...

An earlier position paper has examined the applicability of belief-functions methodology in three reasoning tasks: (1) representation of incomplete knowledge, (2) belief-updating, and (3) evidence pooling. My conclusions were that the use of belief functions encounters basic difficulties along all three tasks, and that extensive experimental and theoretical studies should be undertaken before b...

We investigate the discrete (finite) case of the Popper-Renyi theory of conditional probability, introducing discrete conditional probabilistic models for knowledge and conditional belief, and comparing them with the more standard plausibility models. We also consider a related notion, that of safe belief, which is a weak (non-negatively introspective) type of “knowledge”. We develop a probabil...