Agriculture of the inland arid region in Xinjiang depends on irrigation, which forms oasis of Northwest China. The production and water use of wheat, a dominant crop there, is significantly affected by undergoing climate variability and change. The objective of this study is to quantify inter-annual variability of wheat yield and water use from 1955 to 2006. The farming systems model APSIM (Agr...

Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes will contribute to regional water resource planning and management. This study aims to separate the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes in the upper catchment of the Red River Basin in China. The Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt’s test methods were applied to identify the trends ...

Weather and climate prediction rely on inherently different predictors at different time scales. Some of the variability in precipitation on climate time-scales (i.e., interannual) could be attributed to accumulated noise on weather (i.e., daily) time-scales. To determine a lower bound on how much climate variability is due to processes at climate time-scales, weather generator models with no m...

■ Abstract Variability of the atmospheric and oceanic circulations in the earth system gives rise to an array of naturally occurring dynamical modes. Instead of being spatially independent or spatially uniform, climate variability in different parts of the globe is orchestrated by one or a combination of several climate modes, and global changes take place with a distinctive spatial pattern res...

Pre-industrial control experiments of 15 climate models are used to exam-9 ine decadal variability in the surface climate of Southern Hemisphere extra-10 tropics. We find the climate over the Southern Ocean exhibits large decadal 11 variability in all simulations, underscoring the distinctiveness of this region's 12 internal variability. In every model, decadal variations in surface tempera-13 ...

Climate change assessments often inadequately address uncertainty when estimating damages. Using a dynamic economy-wide model of Bangladesh, we estimate and decompose damages from historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change. Our stochastic simulation approach avoids biases caused by non-linear damage functions and fixed occurrences of extreme events in historical data...

Climate Variability in the Southern Hemisphere is receiving increasing attention due to both the large greenhouse gas forced response that many climate model exhibit in polar regional impacts of the SAM in a coarse resolution coupled climate model. The overwhelming dominance of this mode in the model's oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric interannual to decadal variability led us to the hypothesis ...

Recent reports and scholarship suggest that adapting to current climate variability may represent a ‘no regrets’ strategy for adapting to climate change. Addressing ‘adaptation deficits’ and other approaches that target existing vulnerabilities are helpful for responding to current climate variability, butwe argue that theymay not be sufficient for adapting to climate change. Through a reviewan...

This study investigates Arctic climate variability during a period of extreme warmth using the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Four midCretaceous simulations were completed with different CO2 levels (1, 10, and 16 times preindustrial levels with dynamic vegetation) and vegetation treatments (10 times with specified uniform ba...

Marine ecosystems are sensitive to stochastic environmental variability, with higher-amplitude, lower-frequency--i.e., "redder"--variability posing a greater threat of triggering large ecosystem changes. Here we show that fluctuations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index have slowed down markedly over the observational record (1900-present), as indicated by a robust increase in autoco...