This paper proposes a new combination of quantitative models and Genetic Algorithms for the task of optimising credit portfolios. Currently, quantitative portfolio credit risk models are used to calculate portfolio risk figures, e. g. expected losses, unexpected losses and risk contributions. Usually, this information is used for optimising the risk-return profile of the portfolio. We show that...

In credit risk modelling, the correlation of unobservable asset returns is a crucial component for the measurement of portfolio risk. In this paper, we estimate asset correlations from monthly time series of Moody’s KMV asset values for around 2,000 European firms from 1996 to 2004. We compare correlation and value-atrisk (VaR) estimates in a one–factor or market model and a multi-factor or sec...

A multi-name credit derivative is a security tied to an underlying portfolio of corporate bonds or other credit-sensitive securities. It enables investors to buy and sell protection against the default losses in the portfolio. The value of a multiname derivative depends on the distribution of portfolio loss at multiple horizons. Intensity-based models of the loss point process that are specifie...

M Carlo simulation is widely used to measure the credit risk in portfolios of loans, corporate bonds, and other instruments subject to possible default. The accurate measurement of credit risk is often a rare-event simulation problem because default probabilities are low for highly rated obligors and because risk management is particularly concerned with rare but significant losses resulting fr...

We first derive a general counterparty risk representation formula for the Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) of a netted and collateralized portfolio. This result is then specified to the case, most challenging from the modelling and numerical point of view, of counterparty credit risk. Our general results are essentially model free. Thus, although they are theoretically pleasing, they do not immed...

In this study, we use a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate the household portfolio channel of monetary and credit shocks transmission in Iran. In this regard, we developed a canonical New Keynesian DSGE model with financial and banking sectors. The model is estimated by Bayesian method for the period 1990-2012. The result showed that the current and expected pric...

The turmoil in the capital markets in 1997 and 1998 has highlighted the need for systematic stress testing of banks’ portfolios, including both their trading and lending books. We propose that underlying macroeconomic volatility is a key part of a useful conceptual framework for stress testing credit portfolios, and that credit migration matrices provide the specific linkages between underlying...

Standard market risk optimization tools, based on assumptions of normality, are ineffective for credit risk. In this paper, we develop three scenario optimization models for portfolio credit risk. We first create the trade risk profile and find the best hedge position for a single asset or obligor. The second model adjusts all positions simultaneously to minimize the regret of the portfolio sub...