How Outsourcing Affects Bilateral Political Relations One issue the literature neglects is how outsourcing stimulates trade (imports, exports and foreign direct investment), thereby affecting political relations. However, at least as far back as 1750, economic philosophers such as Baron de Montesquieu in his L’Esprit des Lois, argued, “peace is the natural effect of trade.” This paper first rev...

This paper presents the theoretical development of new threshold autoregressive models based on trended time series. The theoretical arguments underlying the models are outlined and a nonlinear economic model is used to derive the speci cation of the empirical econometric models. Estimation and testing issues are considered and analysed. Additionally we apply the models to the empirical investi...

Fuel poverty is a growing concern in France. Following the hike in energy prices that started in 2004, the problem of energy affordability for low-income households entered the political debate with the “Grenelle de l’environnement” in 2007. According to the standard UK definition (10% ratio) 3.4 million households were subject to fuel poverty in France in 2006. We question the way fuel poverty...

6 Statistical inference 16 6.1 Inférence Bayésienne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 6.2 Non-parametric inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 6.2.1 L’estimation nonparamétrique des quantiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 6.2.2 Régression quantile non-paramétrique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 6.2.3 Les apports ...

The principal aim of this paper is to demonstrate how the coordinate-free methods of linear statistical models may be adapted to the analysis of econometric models, and to explain why such methods are useful for teaching purposes. The application of coordinate-free methods to linear statistical models cast in Euclidean space was first introduced by Kruskal(1961). Later, the methodology was exte...

Using quarterly Taiwan economic data, we demonstrate that deeper understanding of relations between variables and substantial gains in forecasting can be obtained by applying econometric and statistical tools to the traditional macroeconometric models. The improvement in forecasting accuracy is illustrated by outof-sample forecasts, and the models employed in the comparison include univariate t...

This paper considers identification and estimation of structural interaction effects in a social interaction model. The model allows unobservables in the group structure, which may be correlated with included regressors. We show that both the endogenous and exogenous interaction effects can be identified if there are sufficient variations in group sizes. We consider the estimation of the model ...

This paper analyzes the various econometric models that have been used to identify asymmetric pricing in the retail gasoline industry, and also documents empirical regularities in the market. I find that a standard error-correction model coupled with daily price data is best suited to analyze asymmetric price adjustments. Moreover, temporally aggregated data can severely bias parameter estimate...

In this paper we systematically review and develop nonparametric estimation and testing techniques in the context of econometric models. The results are discussed under the settings of regression model and kernel estimation, although as indicated in the paper these results can go through for other econometric models and for the nearest neighbor estimation. A nontechnical survey of the asymptoti...

A very general test statistic for contrasting two nested or nonnested dynamic nonlinear econometric models is presented. It is based on the idea of testing the specification of the first model by using the second model to generate moment conditions for the efficient method of moments (EMM) estimation procedure. The testing procedure also provides guidance as to what aspects of the model should ...