1. Introduction " ...each man possesses opinions about the future, which go by the general name of expectations... " (Plato, Laws 644c, 360 BC) Human behaviour is determined by expectations of future outcomes. While monetary policy discussions have focused almost exclusively on expectations about future inflation, the economic behaviour of households and businesses is driven by expectations abo...

When does new economic information cause voters to re-evaluate the government’s competence, and ultimately vote economically? Since politically-relevant information is often conveyed by actors with incentives to influence voter perceptions, the credibility of information sources can vary significantly. This paper randomly varies whether voters receive an aggregate unemployment forecast from the...

We measure the United States capital stock of money implied by the Divisia monetary aggregate service flow, in a manner consistent with the present-value model of economic capital stock and asset pricing theory. The resulting measures differ substantially from the usual simple sum accounting monetary aggregates. We permit non-martingale expectations and time varying discount rates. Based on Bar...

This paper investigates the empirical relation between consumer and expert expectations about macroeconomic conditions in Germany. Using data from the EU Consumer Con…dence Survey and the ZEW business expectations, I estimate static models and error-correction models explaining consumer expectations as functions of expert expectations, consumer retrospections, and lagged consumer expectations. ...

this article discusses how the extreme makeover: homeeditionustelevision reality program, which focuses on rebuilding houses for those in need,sets unrealistic boundaries for the american dream’s standard of living oflow-income homeowners in the united states. passing through economic hardshipin the past several years, it is important to study how this program can meet thereal expectations of t...

We investigate whether forward guidance and large scale asset purchases are effective in steering economic expectations the US. Using series of monetary policy shocks recovered Swanson (2020), local projections, an algorithm to select best empirical model, we show that unconventional policies tilting a direction consistent with central bankers' will. Our findings provide two more insights: resp...