نتایج جستجو برای: economic modeling and forecasts
تعداد نتایج: 16930526 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
Weather forecasts are produced to help people make decisions in weather sensitive situations, so an important aspect of forecast quality is the economic value of the forecasts to decision-makers in real applications. Assessing the economic value of weather forecasts in real-life operations can, however, be complex. The forecasts are usually only one of a number of factors influencing decisions,...
over the past decades a number of approaches have been applied for forecasting mortality. in 1992, a new method for long-run forecast of the level and age pattern of mortality was published by lee and carter. this method was welcomed by many authors so it was extended through a wider class of generalized, parametric and nonlinear model. this model represents one of the most influential recent d...
Despite their importance, forecasts of real economic activity can be unreliable. Forecasts based on macroeconomic models are often hindered by the lack of timely and accurate data and the complexity of the forecasting model. These difficulties have led to a growing interest in using financial variables to supplement traditional model-based forecasts of real economic activity. The advantages of ...
Ahrrwx-The informational content of ditlercnt forecasts can be compared by regressing the actual change in a variable to be forecasted on forecasts of the change. We we the procedure in Fair and Shikr (1987) to examine the informational content of three sets of ex ante forecasts: the American Statist&i Association and National Bureau of Economic Research Survey (ASP.). Data Resources Incorporat...
this dissertation has six chapter and tree appendices. chapter 1 introduces the thesis proposal including description of problem, key questions, hypothesis, backgrounds and review of literature, research objectives, methodology and theoretical concepts (key terms) taken the literature and facilitate an understanding of national security, national interest and turkish- israeli relations concepts...
on one hand, oil is the greatest energy resource in the world and, on the other hand, because of the role of oil revenue in the economic of oil producer countries, such as iran,it is vital for these countries. so it is necessary to recognize different affective parameters on oil market for these countries. in this research, we try to forecast oil price as an important variable in world wide oil...
with the increasing population and the need for more food, as well as with the development of science and technology, human approach to unnatural and often chemical inputs to increase agricultural production has been a great expansion and problems such as increased cancers, chronic diseases has created environmental pollution. implementation of organic organic is a solution to these problems . ...
in this study, scour of mashkid bridge pier located in mashkid river of saravan county has been studied and to measure the scour rate, the numerical model hec-ras 4.0 has been used. upon selection of mashkid river as the case study and whereas the studied zone is important with respect to the climatic conditions and showery monsoon raining and flowing the great and destructive floodwaters, ther...
In January 2012 the Fed began reporting ranges of its economic forecasts. The ranges, however, measure differences of opinion, not variances of economic forecasts. This paper discusses what the Fed could report in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for the Fed to report giv...
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