Loopy propagation provides for approximate reasoning with Bayesian networks. In previous research, we distinguished between two different types of error in the probabilities yielded by the algorithm; the cycling error and the convergence error. Other researchers analysed an equivalent algorithm for pairwise Markov networks. For such networks with just a simple loop, a relationship between the e...

Ronald Fisher advocated testing using p-values, Harold Jeffreys proposed use of objective posterior probabilities of hypotheses and Jerzy Neyman recommended testing with fixed error probabilities. Each was quite critical of the other approaches. Most troubling for statistics and science is that the three approaches can lead to quite different practical conclusions. This article focuses on discu...

This paper presents two simple formulas for approximation of the standard normal right tail probabilities, and indicates the method of computing approximations of higher order. One of the approximations relies on two simple numerical constants, has absolute error of 0.00071 and relative error 0.023; the other uses four numerical constants, has absolute error of 0.000019, the relative error is ....

It is well known that measurement error of numerical measurements can be divided into a systematic and a random component and that only the latter component is estimable if there is no gold standard or reference standard available. In this paper, we consider measurement error of nominal measurements. We motivate that, on a nominal measurement scale too, measurement error has a systematic and a ...

This paper studies the effect of the space (distance) between lotteries' outcomes on risk-taking behavior and the shape of estimated utility and probability weighting functions. Previously investigated experimental data shows a significant space effect in the gain domain. As compared to low spaced lotteries, high spaced lotteries are associated with higher risk aversion for high probabilities o...