This study identified the criteria that are valued among Internet users when rating and accessing health information on the World Wide Web. Participants (N = 578) successfully completed a Web-based survey by ranking 12 criteria for evaluating health information. Then, by applying those same evaluation criteria, rated the quality of three preselected health-related websites and indicated their p...

Abstract Maritime engineering relies on model forecasts for many different processes, including meteorological and oceanographic forcings, structural responses, energy demands. Understanding the performance evaluation of such forecasting models is crucial in instilling reliability maritime operations. Evaluation metrics that assess point accuracy forecast (such as root-mean-squared error) are c...

We consider tests of forecast encompassing for probability forecasts, for both quadratic and logarithmic scoring rules. We propose test statistics for the null of forecast encompassing, present the limiting distributions of the test statistics, and investigate the impact of estimating the forecasting models’ parameters on these distributions. The small-sample performance is investigated, in ter...

When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and nonnormality of errors. Possible ways around these difficulties are explored here. Two datasets of precipitation forecasts are evaluated, a set of two competing gridded precipitation ...

This paper considers the evaluation of forecasts of a given statistical functional, such as a mean, quantile, or distribution. Recent work has emphasized the importance of evaluating such forecasts using a loss function that is consistent for the functional of interest, of which there are an in…nite number. If forecasters all use correctly speci…ed models, and if the information sets of the com...

Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitativeprecision or qualitative reliability. We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potentialutility gains from utilizing them, not for theiraccuracy. Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns,the expected utility of...