one of the latest approaches for analyzing the coupled time series is mf-dxa. this technique has been used in many disciplines such as finance. in this paper, we have analyzed tehran stock exchange indexes by mf-dxa and have found a scaling behavior between the industrial, financial and price indexes. by surrogating, we could see that the effects of low probability events in industrial and fina...

Country risk has recently become a topic of major concern for the international financial community. A critical assessment of country risk is essential because it reflects the ability and willingness of a country to service its financial obligations. Various risk rating agencies employ different methods to determine country risk ratings, combining a range of qualitative and quantitative informa...

This paper investigates the relationship between accounting information and stock returns for TSE firms over the past 10 years. We construct a simple financial score designed to capture short-term changes in firm operating efficiency, profitability and financial policy. Our score exhibits a strong correlation with market-adjusted returns in the current fiscal period. The correlation remains sig...

We compare the effectiveness of Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Tree-based Genetic Programming (GP) to make accurate predictions on the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The approach is facilitated though a novel representation of the data as a pseudo financial factor model, based on a linear factor model for representing correlations between the returns in different assets...

This paper examines the predictability of real estate asset returns using a number of time series techniques. A vector autoregressive model, which incorporates financial spreads, is able to improve upon the out of sample forecasting performance of univariate time series models at a short forecasting horizon. However, as the forecasting horizon increases, the explanatory power of such models is ...

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta E C O N O M I C R E V I E W First Quarter 2004 A re returns on financial markets useful for predicting the future course of the economy? It is widely thought that financial markets’ movements reflect the economy’s future and that finding the message in financial asset returns is one way to discern this future. The message is not always clear, though. For example,...

This paper explores the relationship between age distribution and asset returns impled by an overlapping-generations asset pricing model. The model predicts that as more individuals reach the age when the increment to their wealth reaches its maximum, asset returns fall. Cross-sectional evidence from the Survey of Financial Characteristics of Consumers and the Surveys of Consumer Finances indic...