This paper deals with design of a model for short-term heat demand forecasting. Forecast of this heat demand course is significant for short-term planning of heat production and it is most important for technical and economic consideration. In this paper we propose the forecast model of heat demand based on the assumption that the course of heat demand can be described sufficiently well as a fu...

Multiplicative trend exponential smoothing has received very little attention in the literature. It involves modelling the local slope by smoothing successive ratios of the local level, and this leads to a forecast function that is the product of level and growth rate. By contrast, the popular Holt method uses an additive trend formulation. It has been argued that more real series have multipli...

A wildfire forecasting tool capable of estimating the fire perimeter position sufficiently in advance of the actual fire arrival will assist firefighting operations and optimise available resources. However, owing to limited knowledge of fire event characteristics (e.g. fuel distribution and characteristics, weather variability) and the short time available to deliver a forecast, most of the cu...

In recent years there has been a considerable development in modelling nonlinearities and asymmetries in economic and financial variables. The aim of the current paper is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of three of the most traded exchange rates in terms of the US dollar, namely the French franc (FF/$), the German mark (DM/$) and the Japanese yen (Y/$)...

FORECASTING OF CAPITALIZATION OF BANKING INSTITUTIONS IN UKRAINE Abstract. In this article peculiarities of existing approaches to the assessment of the bank capitalization are investigated. The advancing tools for mathematical analysis modelling were put forward by authors for predicting of the Ukrainian banks capitalization. The forecast of Ukrainian bank capitalization is given for various c...

State-of-the-art wind power forecasts beyond a few hours ahead rely on global numerical weather prediction models to forecast the future large-scale atmospheric state. Often they provide initial and boundary conditions for nested high resolution simulations. In this paper, both upper and lower bounds on forecast range are identified within which global ensemble forecasts provide skilful informa...

In this paper, we argue that there is no compelling reason for restricting the class of multivariate models considered for macroeconomic forecasting to VARs given the recent advances in VARMA modelling methodology and improvements in computing power. To support this claim, we use real macroeconomic data and show that VARMA models forecast macroeconomic variables more accurately than VAR models.

Electricity price forecasting has been a booming field over the years, with many methods and techniques being applied different degrees of success. It is great interest to industry sector, becoming must-have tool for risk management. Most forecast electricity itself; this paper gives new perspective by trying dynamics behind price: supply demand curves originating from auction. Given complexity...