A fundamental assumption in all sequential bargaining models is that when an offer is accepted the bargaining terminates with the implementation of that proposal. The proposer cannot change his mind; he is, in effect, committed to his proposal. In this short paper we explore the consequence of relaxing this (rather strong) commitment assumption. Our main result indicates that this commitment as...

Composite indicators (CIs) are often used for benchmarking countries’ performance, but they frequently stir controversies about the unavoidable subjectivity in their construction. Data Envelopment Analysis helps to overcome some key limitations, as it does not need any prior information on either the normalization of sub-indicators or on an agreed unique set of weights. Still, subjective decisi...

This paper demonstrates that a significant link exists between the real economy and financial conditions proxied by technical indicators. We show that technical indicators distill the high frequency information of asset prices into useful signals of future economic activity. In-sample and out-of-sample results reveal that technical indicators forecast coincident indicators as well as the Confer...

The World Bank has recently developed a method to evaluate the effects of climate change on six hydrological indicators across 8951 basins of the world. The indicators are designed for decision-makers and stakeholders to consider climate risk when planning water resources and related infrastructure investments. Analysis of these hydrological indicators shows that, on average, mean annual runoff...

[1] The kinetics of ozone (O3) chemistry and its two main precursors, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), represents an important field of uncertainty in atmospheric chemistry and photochemical modeling. This uncertainty affects the design of control strategies to reduce tropospheric O3 production. The effect of controlling ozone precursors on sensitivity regimes was eva...

BACKGROUND Decision-analytic cost-effectiveness (CE) models combine many parameters, often obtained after meta-analysis. AIM We compared different methods of mixed-treatment comparison (MTC) to combine transition and event probabilities derived from several trials, especially with respect to health-economic (HE) outcomes like (quality adjusted) life years and costs. METHODS Trials were draw...

A common feature of problem solving in real world complex domains is detecting moments of high informational uncertainty and trying to resolve this informational uncertainty. Yet, relatively little is known about these important aspects of real world cognition. Expert and novice performance is contrasted for relative use of informational uncertainty indicator strategies and problem solving stra...

pa.ars.u Summary As hydrologic and water quality (H/WQ) models are increasingly used to guide water resource policy, management, and regulation, it is no longer appropriate to disregard uncertainty in model calibration, validation, and evaluation. In the present research, the method of calculating the error term in pairwise comparisons of measured and predicted values was modified to consider m...

The aim of this article is to investigate the dynamic correlation between the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index (GEPU) and Non-Performing Loans (NPL) in Iran. The relationship between economic uncertainty and banking performance indices is significant because of the systemic importance of banks in every economy. We evaluated this relationship in this developing country, especially under ...