We present a new system for plausible reasoning in expert systems. It is an extension of the Horn clause subset of first order logic, and is distinguished by its use of non-numeric certainties and the assignment of certainties to logical formulae rather than events. Model theoretic and ftxpoint semantics are sketched for this language. An implementation in the logic programming language Prolog ...

The results reported in this paper were obtained through the study of 43 work-units belonging to five business firms in a large group of Tunisian companies. Using the declarative, procedural and judgmental dimensions of organizational memory, interaction effects were detected between IT and organizational memory. Analyses of the data support the view that storage technologies interact with decl...

The risk of oil spills is a major environmental issue in the siting of proposed coastal refineries, oil terminals, deepwater ports, and in the leasing of offshore lands for oil exploration and development. As with any kind of risk, oil spill risk assessment is inherently judgmental and no analytic method can eliminate the need for judgment. This paper compares representative examples of oil spi...

Judgmental anchoring—the assimilation of a numeric estimate towards a previously considered standard—is an exceptionally ubiquitous eVect that inXuences human judgment in a variety of domains and paradigms. Three studies examined whether anchoring eVects even occur, if anchor values are presented subliminally, outside of judges’ awareness. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrate such subliminal anchoring e...

The results reported in this chapter were obtained through the study of 43 work-units belonging to five business firms in a large group of Tunisian companies. Using the declarative, procedural and judgmental dimensions of organizational memory, interaction effects were detected between IT and organizational memory. Analyses of the data support the view that storage technologies interact with de...

Excess entry – or the high failure rate of market-entry decisions – is often attributed to overconfidence exhibited by entrepreneurs. We show analytically that whereas excess entry is an inevitable consequence of imperfect assessments of entrepreneurial skill, it does not imply overconfidence. Judgmental fallibility leads to excess entry even when everyone is underconfident. Self-selection impl...