Evidence of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) representations is found in two, out of three, time series of different measures of annual inflation in Colombia during this decade for monthly data. The STAR-type nonlinearities are asymmetric for inflation computed as the variation of CPI while for (a measure of ) core inflation are symmetric. Thus, LSTAR and ESTAR models were, respectively,...

Many authors claimed that a large initial inhomogeneity prevents the onset of inflation and therefore inflation takes place only if the scalar field is homogeneous or appropriately chosen over the horizon scale. We show that those arguments do not apply to topological inflation. The core of a defect starts inflation even if it has much smaller size than the horizon and much larger gradient ener...

Much of the inflation forecasting literature examines the ability of macroeconomic indicators to accurately predict mean inflation. For the period after 1984, existing empirical evidence largely suggests that the likelihood of accurately predicting inflation using macroeconomic indicators is no better than a random walk model. We expand the scope of inflation predictability by exploring whether...

A dissipative mechanism is presented, which emerges in generic interacting quantum field systems and which leads to robust warm inflation. An explicit example is considered, where using typical parameter values, it is shown that considerable radiation can be produced during inflation. The extension of our results to expanding spacetime also is discussed. PACS numbers: 98.80.Cq, 05.70.Ln, 11.10....

What are the implications of targeting different measures of inflation? We extend a basic theoretical framework of optimal monetary policy under inflation targeting to include several components of CPI inflation, and analyze the implications of using different measures of inflation as target variable— core inflation, CPI excluding interest rates, and headline CPI inflation. Our main results are...

Should a central bank accommodate energy price shocks? Should the central bank use core inflation or headline inflation with the volatile energy component in its Taylor rule? To answer these questions, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with energy use, durable goods, and nominal rigidities to study the effects of an energy price shock and its impact on the macroeconomy whe...

This paper assesses the prospects for the new Polish monetary policy strategy of inflation targeting. Regarding the general requirements for implementing an inflation targeting strategy it appears that Poland has made sufficient progress in reducing fiscal dominance and hardening budget constraints. The paper also finds that the exchange rate has played a dominant role as a policy instrument, w...