Period life expectancy is calculated from age-specific death rates using life table methods that are among the oldest and most fundamental tools of demography. These methods are rarely questioned, much less criticized. Yet changing age patterns of adult mortality in contemporary countries with high life expectancy provide a basis for questioning the conventional use of age-specific death rates ...

BACKGROUND Projections of future mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. Our aim was to forecast national age-specific mortality and life expectancy using an approach that takes into account the uncertainty related to the choice of forecasting model. METHODS We developed an ensemble of 21 forecasting models, all of which probabilistically ...

the decline in avoidable mortality (am) and increase in life expectancy in shanghai is impressive. gusmano and colleagues suggested that shanghai’s improved health system has contributed significantly to this decline in am. however, when compared to other global cities, shanghai’s life expectancy at birth is improving as london and new york city, but has yet to surpass that of hong kong, tokyo,...

We describe here the methods used to produce the first estimates of healthy life expectancy (DALE) for 191 countries in 1999. These were based on estimates of the incidence, prevalence, and disability distributions for 109 disease and injury causes by age group, sex, and region of the world, and an analysis of 60 representative health surveys across the world. We used Sullivan's method to compu...

OBJECTIVES To examine trends in life expectancy at birth and age and cause specific patterns of mortality in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) and Poland during political transition and throughout the 1990s in both parts of Germany and in Poland. METHODS Decomposition of life expectancy by age and cause of death. Changes in life expectancy during transition by cause of death were ex...

BACKGROUND This study examines changes in the extent of inequalities in life expectancy at birth and other ages in the United States between 1980 and 2000 by gender and socioeconomic deprivation levels. METHODS A factor-based deprivation index consisting of 11 education, occupation, wealth, income distribution, unemployment, poverty, and housing quality indicators was used to define deprivati...

OBJECTIVES Describing differences in years of life lost (LLY) regarding life expectancy at birth in Colombia amongst Departments during the study period. METHODS Data about life expectancy at birth by gender were taken from the Colombian Statistics Administration Department (DAÑE) databases for 1985-1990, 1995-2000 and 2000-2005. Data about the country having the best world health expectancy ...

Estimates of the upper limits to human longevity have important policy implications that directly affect forecasts of life expectancy, active life expectancy, population aging, and social and medical programs tied to the size and health status of the elderly population. In the past, investigators have based speculations about the upper limits of human longevity on observations of past trends in...